Posted Friday at 4:00pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 8

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, October 25

NFL Week 8

 

N.Y. Jets +6½ over Cincinnati
Paycor Stadium – Cincinnati, OH

 

1:00 PM ET. This is the very definition of an inflated number. The Bengals finally won a football game last week and suddenly the market’s acting like they’re back to being a powerhouse. They’re not.

 

That win over Pittsburgh was fluky as hell. Cincinnati was outgained, bailed out by turnovers, and needed every break in the book to survive. Joe Flacco’s 342 yards look good on paper, but a deeper look shows a dozen drives that stalled, a running game that never got going, and a defense that hasn’t stopped anyone for four quarters all season. The Bengals are still the same team that lost four in a row before that — soft in the trenches, thin at corner, and living off two elite receivers.

 

Now they’re being asked to spot nearly a touchdown against anyone? That’s rich.

As for the Jets, there’s no denying they’re a mess. The quarterback carousel is ugly, and Woody Johnson’s public whining about his offense doesn’t help. Still, what the market misses here is that New York’s defense is absolutely capable of keeping this within a possession. They rank top-five in pressure rate, and even without Sauce Gardner, they bring enough heat to disrupt a one-dimensional Cincinnati offense that lives and dies with Flacco’s arm.

 

This is also a classic situational letdown for the Bengals. They finally broke the skid, the locker room relaxed, and now they’re staring down a “should-win” spot before heading into a winnable game with Chicago next week. That’s the kind of sandwich spot where inflated favorites go to die.

The Jets have every reason to show up angry — desperate teams with competent defenses are almost always worth a look when catching a number like this. The points have value, and the outright upset wouldn’t shock us in the least. Recommendation: N.Y. Jets +6½

 

Philadelphia -7½ over N.Y. Giants

Lincoln Financial Field - Philadelphia, PA

 

1:00 PM ET. The market is practically begging you to take the Giants again. They just hammered the Eagles 34-17 two weeks ago as a 7½-point underdog, and now they’re catching the same number in the rematch? The public is going to look at that, remember what they saw on Thursday night in Jersey, and figure it’s free money. It isn’t.

 

Everything about this setup screams correction. That Week 6 game was one of those outlier performances that make casual bettors believe in false narratives. The Giants were +2 in turnovers, converted every key third down, and got three touchdowns from Cam Skattebo on short fields. Meanwhile, Philadelphia went 1-for-9 on third down, dropped two passes in the end zone, and still outgained the Giants by over 100 yards. That game told you more about variance than it did about talent.

 

Since then, the Eagles have looked like themselves again — 28 points on the road in Minnesota, no turnovers, and a defense that’s finally healthy. The return of Jalen Carter is massive. He didn’t play in the first meeting, and his presence up front changes everything about how Jaxson Dart will see the field. The Giants’ O-line has been shaky against any pressure package, and Philadelphia’s front seven is about to feast.

 

We’re not selling the idea that Jaxson Dart can just roll into Philly and repeat his rookie masterpiece from two weeks ago. He’s still a first-year quarterback, facing the same defense for the second time in 18 days — except this time, they’ve had film, rest, and Jalen Carter. That’s a bad formula for the visitor.

 

The Eagles are off that “embarrassed favorite” spot that’s made us money for years — good teams that lose outright as big favorites tend to destroy their opponent in the immediate rematch. Everything here points to one of those beatdowns. The books hung this line exactly where they wanted it to attract Giants money, and they’re going to clean up. Recommendation: Philadelphia -7½

 

Houston -1½ over San Francisco

NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

 

1:00 PM ET. This line smells like reputation meeting reality. The 49ers have grabbed an early edge with wins over Los Angeles and Seattle, but injuries have bled the roster dry. Nick Bosa (torn right ACL) and Fred Warner (fractured right ankle) are out for the season, while Bryce Huff and Jake Brendel are sidelined with hamstring issues. George Kittle returned during Sunday’s 20–10 home win over Atlanta, a game keyed by Christian McCaffrey’s 201 scrimmage yards and two rushing TDs. 

 

Brock Purdy is out with a toe problem, Mac Jones started in his place, and Purdy remained limited in Wednesday practice. Colton McKivitz admitted the offense needs urgency to score, run and pass better — that’s not spin, that’s the team acknowledging it is not firing on all cylinders. Ricky Pearsall, Deommodore Lenoir and Yetur Gross-Matos all missed Wednesday practice as well. In short, the ‘Niners are the Walking Dead, and it’s zombie hunting season. 

 

Houston has been through its share of turbulence — throttling Tennessee and Baltimore after an 0–3 start, then sputtering in Seattle where the only offensive TD came with 2:04 left. The Texans sit 2–4, with their losses totaling 21 combined points; DeMeco Ryans says the team is close and just needs to execute one play to flip results. C.J. Stroud insists his confidence remains high and that the team continues to click more each week even with Nico Collins (concussion) and Christian Kirk (hamstring) limited Wednesday.

 

San Francisco’s defensive leadership is gone, the 49ers are patching together lineups, and the quarterback situation is uncertain. The Texans have shown they can hang in every game and are the steadier unit at the moment. Market perception is still buying 49ers brand equity; the price has inflated because of recent results not the matchup on the field. In short, the ‘Niners are the Walking Dead, and it’s zombie hunting season. Recommendation: Houston -1½

 

Atlanta -7½ over Miami

Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

1:00 PM ET. At first glance, this number looks inflated. A team that just got handled in San Francisco now being asked to spot more than a touchdown? It doesn’t make sense — and that’s exactly why it does. When a line looks off, it’s usually not the oddsmakers who are wrong.

 

This is a buy sign on Atlanta. The market has been slow to adjust to the gap between these two teams. The Falcons have been maddeningly inconsistent, yes, but they’ve beaten real clubs — Washington, Buffalo — and every one of their losses came against quality opponents. They return home with an angry defense and a ground game that can dictate the pace. Miami, on the other hand, is a tire fire. They’ve dropped three straight by an average of 18 points, their quarterback is broken, their coach looks out of answers, and the defense is the worst in football against the run. That’s a bad cocktail heading into Atlanta.

 

The Dolphins can’t stop anybody. They’re surrendering nearly five and a half yards per carry and have allowed 29 points per game. That’s death against Bijan Robinson and this Falcons rushing attack. If Atlanta wins at the line of scrimmage — and they will — then Penix Jr. (or whoever starts) doesn’t have to do anything heroic. Just hand off, take a few shots, and let the defense finish the job.

 

Everyone will look at this number and think it’s too high. That’s the trap. Atlanta shouldn’t be spotting more than a touchdown… unless Miami is truly as broken as they look. The Dolphins have quit on drives, quit on games, and look dangerously close to quitting on the season.

 

The Falcons are the only side that makes sense here. The number looks wrong because the matchup isn’t close. Recommendation: Atlanta -7½

Baltimore -6½ over Chicago

M&T Bank Stadium - Baltimore, MD

 

1:00 PM ET. This isn’t about streaks; it’s about correction. Markets have overreacted to a Chicago team that’s been running absurdly hot while Baltimore quietly hits the bottom of its range. The Bears have won four straight, but they’ve also been handed short fields, loose balls, and red-zone gifts that don’t sustain. The Ravens, meanwhile, have been stuck in the mud for a month — but that’s where the value is.

 

The Bears' gaudy turnover margin (+11) is pure mirage. That’s not defensive brilliance; it’s unsustainable luck. They’ve been outgained in three of the four wins and are still being priced like a team that figured something out. The market doesn’t realize Chicago’s offense is built on smoke, field goals, and broken plays — not structure or rhythm.

 

Baltimore went into their bye reeling and embarrassed. That’s exactly when we want to buy in. They’re still a top-tier efficiency team between the 20s, they still control time of possession, and they’re still capable of punishing an overachieving defense with ball control and physicality. The Ravens’ offensive metrics plummeted with Cooper Rush under center, but that’s not the story here — the story is the reset. Coming off the bye, with energy back in the building, this team is due for a correction.

 

Chicago’s wins came against teams mostly in disarray (Washington, Minnesota) or just finding themselves (New England, Carolina). Now they’re stepping up in class, outdoors, against a defense that still ranks among the top five in pressure rate. Caleb Williams will be asked to process faster and throw into tighter windows than he’s ever seen. That’s a bad recipe on the road against a desperate team. Recommendation: Baltimore -6½

 

Buffalo -7½ over Carolina

Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC

 

1:00 PM ET. This one sticks out like a sore thumb. Carolina has won three straight, sits 3-0 at home, and looks like a team finally finding itself under Dave Canales. The Bills, meanwhile, have dropped two straight and were sleepwalking through October. Yet they’re spotting more than a touchdown on the road? That number doesn’t make sense — which is exactly why Buffalo is the right side.

 

Lines like this are the market’s way of telling you something. The Panthers are 4-3 and getting love from the talking heads, but peel back the layers and it’s smoke and mirrors. They’ve beaten the Jets, Raiders, and Saints — all bottom-tier offenses that make any opponent look better than they are. Carolina’s wins are built on short fields and turnovers, not sustained drives. Bryce Young is hurt, Andy Dalton is in line to start, and that’s a big drop in mobility against a Bills defense that thrives on pressure.

 

Buffalo comes in off a bye, rested, prepared, and angry. The Bills haven’t lost three straight under Josh Allen since he became the starter, and there’s a reason for that. They respond. The last time Allen had two bad games in a row, he followed it up with 38 points. When Buffalo’s off a bye, they’ve gone 8-0 straight up since 2017 — and most of those were blowouts.

 

We’re not buying the “Carolina home magic” either. The Panthers have been good to bettors at home, but those trends don’t hold when you’re stepping up in class. Buffalo’s front will overwhelm Carolina’s O-line, and even with a few injuries on offense, Allen and Cook can move the ball however they please.

 

The market is dangling the carrot here, hoping you take the “hot” home dog catching more than a TD. Don’t fall for it. Carolina is about to get a cold reminder of what a real contender looks like. Recommendation: Buffalo -7½

 

Cleveland +7 over New England

Gillette Stadium - Foxboro, MA

 

1:00 PM ET The market is telling you New England is the third-best team in football. That’s what a -7 line implies here. The Patriots have won four straight, their rookie quarterback Drake Maye looks sharp, and the defense ranks top-five against the run. Everything about this number screams premium. It’s inflated to account for recent results, and the books know the public will gladly lay it with a rolling team at home.

 

Cleveland, meanwhile, is still perceived as broken because of a 2-5 record and an offense that ranks near the bottom in every metric. We’re not blind to that. The Browns’ passing game has been ultra-conservative with rookie Dillon Gabriel at the helm, and their rushing attack has yet to find rhythm outside of Quinshon Judkins grinding out tough yards. On the surface, it looks like a mismatch — which is exactly the point.

 

This number doesn’t make sense. The Patriots were underdogs in every single game last season, yet here they are laying a full touchdown against the league’s top defense in yards allowed. It’s the kind of swing that should set off alarms for anyone paying attention. The Browns’ defense gives them a shot every week, and as ugly as their offensive output can be, they’re not giving up explosive plays. They tackle well, get pressure without blitzing, and force opponents to sustain long drives. That’s not the type of team you want to spot seven points to.

 

New England’s success has been built on efficiency and clean football — they haven’t been tested much during this winning streak. A front seven like Cleveland’s can change that. If the Browns can make Maye move his feet and take away the middle of the field, this game has grind written all over it. Recommendation: Cleveland +7

 

New Orleans +3½ over Tampa Bay

Caesars Super Dome - New Orleans, LA

 

4:05 PM ET. Every week the market tells a story, and this one doesn’t add up. Tampa Bay is laying points on the road on short rest after flying back from Detroit, where they were thoroughly outplayed in a game that wasn’t as close as the 24-9 score suggests. They’re banged up all over — Mike Evans is out, half their defense didn’t practice, and this is their second straight road game. Yet they’re being priced as if nothing’s wrong.

 

The Bucs are 5-2, but it’s been a very flattering 5-2. They’ve been living on turnover luck and red-zone defense, two things that rarely sustain over time. When you take away those breaks, Tampa’s profile looks pedestrian — especially offensively. They’ve gone from balanced to one-dimensional, throwing 50+ times last week while managing just 41 rushing yards. Baker Mayfield is serviceable when things are clean, but the line is thin between control and chaos, and he’s trending toward the latter.

 

New Orleans, meanwhile, looked ugly in Chicago. Spencer Rattler turned it over four times, the Saints shot themselves in the foot repeatedly, and the scoreline reflected it. That tends to create an overreaction. The market sees “Tampa bounce-back, Saints mess,” and that’s how you get value. Turnovers are random noise. Rattler had protected the ball all year before that one meltdown, and now we get the Saints at home catching more than a field goal against a team running on fumes.

 

The Saints’ defense remains intact and capable of frustrating a pass-heavy attack, and this spot sets up beautifully. Tampa is dealing with cluster injuries to its skill positions and linebacking corps. They’ve been punching above their weight for a month, and the cracks finally showed in Detroit. Short rest, injuries, and travel — that’s not the formula for laying points in the division. Recommendation: New Orleans +3½

 

Tennessee +14½ over Indianapolis

Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

 

4:25 PM ET. This number makes no sense. The Colts are being priced like the 1984 49ers, not a team that’s overachieved on the back of turnovers and an unsustainable red-zone conversion rate. Laying over two touchdowns in a divisional game is asking a lot — especially when the favorite has been living in the stratosphere for a month. Indy is good, sure, but the market’s acting like they’re flawless. They aren’t.

 

We get it — they’ve won six of seven, they’ve got the top-scoring offense in football, and Jonathan Taylor is running through people like they’re holograms. Those are all fine reasons to make them a favorite, but not this kind of favorite. This line assumes perfection from a team that’s built on rhythm and comfort. The problem is, comfort doesn’t last forever in the NFL, and divisional games tend to drag teams into the mud.

 

Tennessee, meanwhile, is being priced like they’ve already quit. That’s often where the best value lives. Yes, they’re 1-6. Yes, they’ve been blown out more than once. That also means this price reflects the worst of their perception. They were embarrassed by New England last week and now walk into Indy as a two-touchdown underdog to a team they see twice every year. You think that doesn’t sting a locker room full of pros?

 

Cam Ward has taken his lumps, but the kid can play. He’s mobile, he’s got touch, and he’s been working behind a patchwork line that’s forced him into survival mode every week. If Tennessee can just get out of its own way — finish drives, make a kick or two, and avoid the three-and-outs that gas their defense — they can easily stay inside this inflated number.

 

The Titans’ defense, even banged up, still has enough toughness up front to force Indy to earn it. And that matters when the clock keeps moving and possessions shrink. This is classic letdown territory for the Colts — huge home favorite, coming off a road win, divisional opponent everyone expects them to crush. Those are the games that get tricky. Recommendation: Tennessee +14½

 

Denver -3½ over Dallas

Empire Field At Mile High - Denver, CO

 

4:25 PM ET. This number feels short. Denver’s won four straight, including a miracle comeback last week, and they’re quietly becoming one of the tougher outs in the AFC. Now they return home, altitude and all, against a Dallas team that’s as inconsistent as it gets. The Cowboys have alternated wins and losses since Week 2, yet the market keeps treating them like a top-tier outfit. They’re not. They’re a middle-of-the-pack team with gaudy point totals that hide serious flaws.

 

Dallas has been scoring in bunches, sure — their last four games have averaged over 65 points — but that also means their defense is spending far too much time reacting. Prescott’s putting up numbers because he has to. Every Dallas game turns into a track meet, and those rarely end well when you’re playing at Mile High against a team that thrives on chaos.

 

Denver, meanwhile, has found something. Bo Nix isn’t flashy, but he’s smart, steady, and unshaken. His command of Sean Payton’s offense gets sharper by the week, and that fourth-quarter explosion against the Giants wasn’t luck — it was a product of patience. They just kept coming. Nix is now 7-2 against the spread as a home favorite over the last two years, and that includes spots just like this: modest number, public on the other side, Broncos undervalued at home.

 

The Cowboys are traveling on a short emotional turnaround after routing Washington. They’ve been awful away from Jerry World (1-3 on the road), and this altitude trip is never friendly. Denver’s defense still bends, but at home, it’s a different animal. They disguise coverages, fly to the ball, and feed off the noise. Recommendation: Denver -3½

 

Green Bay -3 over Pittsburgh

Acrisure Stadium - Pittsburgh, PA

 

8:20 PM ET. Aaron Rodgers spent 18 years as the face of the Packers franchise. He delivered a Super Bowl, multiple MVPs, and a decade of stability most fanbases would kill for. When it ended, it wasn’t pretty. Rodgers wasn’t thrilled with how he was ushered out, and Green Bay wasn’t exactly shy about moving forward with Jordan Love. Publicly, both sides say there’s no animosity. Privately, you know there’s pride involved.

 

Now Rodgers gets his shot at the Packers as the Steelers’ quarterback, and the market is still clinging to Pittsburgh’s “home dog” reputation under Mike Tomlin. That angle has worked for years, but it’s not gospel anymore. This current version of the Steelers is paper-thin on defense, surrendering 30 or more points in three games already, and they were shredded by Cincinnati in their last outing. The extra prep time off that Thursday nighter is nice, but it doesn’t fix structural issues — namely, a pass rush that falls off hard when T.J. Watt isn’t wrecking plays and a secondary that can’t cover without help.

 

Meanwhile, the Packers have quietly stabilized. They’ve gone unbeaten in their last three (2-0-1) and are coming off a gritty road win in Arizona. Love continues to look more confident with each start, and the addition of Micah Parsons has completely changed the complexion of their defense. Parsons and Rashan Gary are a nightmare off the edge — and against this Pittsburgh offensive line, that’s the key.

 

This number is telling. Green Bay hasn’t been cashing tickets, having failed to cover four straight, yet they’re still spotting a full field goal on the road to a team with a winning record and a Hall of Fame quarterback. That’s not a trap — that’s an invitation. The line makes no sense because the oddsmakers know the only side they can’t inflate is the one most people don’t want to touch right now.

 

Rodgers can talk all he wants about this not being a revenge game. It is. He’ll never admit it, but you don’t spend nearly two decades somewhere, get shown the door, and not circle the date when you see them again. Green Bay’s roster is better, deeper, and more disciplined. Pittsburgh’s being priced off nostalgia. Reccomendation: Green Bay -3