Posted Friday at 2:00pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 5

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, October 5

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - London, England

Minnesota -3½ over Cleveland

9:30 AM ET. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London. Neutral site in name only. Minnesota has been in Europe all week, fully acclimated, and that’s the story the market isn’t paying enough attention to. Travel and body clocks matter. Routine matters. The Vikings have had theirs in place since Monday while Cleveland is flying in late, playing catch-up with logistics before they even step on the field.

Now add the quarterback situation. Into the fire goes Dillon Gabriel, who is making his first NFL start. Dropped into a London spotlight, on a different continent,  in a different time zone, against a defense that can disguise looks and bring heat from multiple angles — that’s about as difficult a debut as you can draw up. This is not Eugene on a Saturday afternoon. This is the NFL stage with unfamiliar travel, condensed prep, and a neutral stadium that will feel anything but friendly when things start to snowball.

The Browns are a mess when you peel back the layers. Their defense, hyped endlessly last year, is suddenly looking pedestrian when it’s asked to carry the load. Their offense is not trustworthy in the best of spots, let alone with a rookie pressed into duty behind an offensive line that’s been leaking pressure all year. Away from home, this outfit has been a cash-burner for over a year — 0-10 straight-up, 1-9 ATS. That’s not variance. That’s a profile of a team that does not travel, and now they’re tasked with hopping continents.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has a much cleaner look. They’ve been through this London routine multiple times in the last few years and it shows. They treat it like a business trip and they know how to prep for it. They’re not the better team on paper by a mile, but they are the better team in this spot, which is all that matters. The Vikings have continuity, comfort, and the sharper quarterback — three massive edges on neutral turf. Combine that with Cleveland’s complete inability to function away from home — now with a rookie making his first start — makes this one of the cleaner edges on the board. Underlay. Recommendation: Minnesota -3½

Cincinnati +10 over Detroit

 

1:10 PM EST, There are times in this racket when the right side feels downright disgusting, and this is one of those spots. Prior to the season, the thought of Cincinnati being a double-digit dog would have been laughable. Joe Burrow may not be under center right now, but the cupboard isn’t as bare as the market wants you to think. Yes, the Bengals are dead last in total yards, rushing, and 30th in scoring through four weeks, but that’s precisely why you’re getting this inflated tag. Jake Browning has looked like a guy still figuring it out, but Zac Taylor continues to back him, and a competent QB with even a flicker of confidence can change the trajectory quickly. Regression works both ways—what’s ugly now rarely stays ugly forever.

 

On the other side, the Lions are the belle of the ball. They’ve ripped off three straight wins and covers after an ugly opener, and bettors are lined up around the block to click Detroit tickets. Since 2021, Detroit is an absurd 50-21-1 against the spread, which sounds like the kind of trend you can mortgage the house on. Only problem? Everyone and their brother knows it. Markets adapt. Laying doubles with a “hot” ATS team after a multi-week streak is precisely how books fatten their Christmas bonuses. Factor in that Detroit has Kansas City on deck in prime time and you’ve got yourself a perfect recipe for a flat performance or, at the very least, a lack of urgency.

 

Situationally, this is a textbook “buy low, sell high” moment. Cincinnati’s stock hasn’t been this toxic in 30 years, while Detroit’s stock is skyrocketing. The Bengals are the team nobody wants to be associated with—public perception has them pegged as a dumpster fire. Yet the NFL is built on volatility: bad teams don’t stay bad, and good teams don’t cash tickets indefinitely. Laying points is easy when everything looks perfect. Taking them is how you actually make money in the long run.

 

Finally, let’s not gloss over the historical betting system in play here. Home underdogs of +7 or more in the first half of the season are 38-10-2 ATS since 2020, hitting at nearly 80 percent. That isn’t noise—that’s structural inefficiency. The Browns cashed that role earlier this season, and Dallas nearly did the same before the line dipped under a touchdown. Cincinnati fits it perfectly here, and while you may want to hold your nose when you click “submit,” the math and the market both say the same thing: this is the right side. Recommendation: Cincinnati +10.

Carolina +1 over Miami

 

1:00 PM ET. This is the definition of a trap. The Dolphins are spotting a price on the road in Charlotte after playing Monday night, traveling on a short week, and adjusting to life without Tyreek Hill. That’s not just a ding to their offense — it’s a complete shift in how defenses approach them. Hill is the gravity piece. Without him, Miami suddenly looks ordinary, and we’re not about to lay road points with an ordinary side.

 

Carolina’s record is ugly, but the scoreboard doesn’t tell the truth. The Panthers’ defense has quietly been one of the more consistent units in the league, holding opponents to manageable totals and generating stops. What has betrayed them is everything else. Special teams were a disaster last week, essentially gifting New England two touchdowns on long punt returns. On offense, turnovers and inconsistent quarterback play have short-circuited otherwise competent drives. The market sees a team that “can’t get out of its own way,” but what we see is value hiding in plain sight.

 

The Bryce Young benching dominated headlines, yet that’s noise. This game doesn’t hinge on one guy under center — it hinges on whether Carolina can force Miami into long fields, and the Panthers’ defense has proven capable of doing just that. At home, where they’ve consistently punched above their weight, the Panthers suddenly become a very live underdog.

 

Meanwhile, Miami is being priced like the same team that ran roughshod through bad defenses last year. They’re not. With Hill sidelined, the offense shrinks. On a short turnaround, against a defense that has enough teeth to make life miserable, the Dolphins are in one of those classic spots where perception outweighs reality. Recommendation: Carolina +1

Denver +3½ over Philadelphia

1:00 PM ET. The Eagles are 4-0, but every win has been a grind. They’ve been outgained in all four games, which is a massive red flag. In fact, they join the 2012 Cardinals as the only teams in 90 years to start 4-0 while being on the wrong side of the yardage ledger each week. That Arizona team finished 5-11. It is extremely difficult to sustain that kind of profile.

Now the Eagles are laying more than a field goal in a spot where they could be looking ahead. They get the Giants on Thursday Night Football in a divisional prime-time showcase. Teams in that position are notoriously flat. Philadelphia has also been living on the margins: Jalen Hurts is their leading rusher, their defense is banged up, and they needed trick wrinkles out of the tush push just to sneak by Tampa.

Denver arrives with a defense that finally looked like the unit Sean Payton expected when he took the job. The Bengals were smothered on Monday night, and the Broncos’ pass rush was disruptive from start to finish. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix isn’t being asked to do too much, but the Broncos’ attack is balanced with J.K. Dobbins pounding between the tackles and Courtland Sutton providing a reliable outside option. This isn’t a pushover offense, and it has actually outgained Philly’s production through four games.

The Eagles haven’t put anyone away this season, and now they’re spotting more than a field goal in a scheduling trap. Denver is live to win outright, but we’ll gratefully take the points. Recommendation: Denver +3

New York Jets +2½ over Dallas

1:00 PM ET. There is no way on earth the Cowboys should be spotting road points in their current state, even against these Jets. Dallas is 1-2-1, their defense ranks dead last in yards allowed, second last in points allowed, and they’ve already blown multiple games in which they had halftime control. You don’t fix those kinds of leaks by flying into New Jersey against a desperate opponent.

The market still wants to frame this as “Dallas has Dak and weapons, the Jets are 0-4, case closed.” That’s surface-level thinking. Dig deeper. The Cowboys have given up 61.5 points per game combined over their first four, and that number should actually be higher if not for weather delays and halves where opponents shut it down. Every team has scored on them with ease, and now they’re beat up on both lines and banged up in the secondary.

Yes, the Jets are a mess too — they’ve turned it over, taken dumb penalties, and failed to force a single takeaway. That’s precisely why they’re being discounted here. It creates a buy-low situation. Head coach Aaron Glenn has this group playing hard, and the urgency in that locker room is sky-high. Garrett Wilson said it himself: “got to have it.” The players know it, and that matters.

New York is 0-4, but it’s not for lack of fight. They’ve played with energy and put themselves in spots to win, only to implode with self-inflicted wounds. That can correct. What cannot be hidden is a defense like Dallas’, one that has been bleeding explosives all year, and now must travel on a short week with seven key starters nursing injuries. Recommendation: New York Jets +2½ 

Baltimore +1 over Houston

 

1:00 PM ET. Sometimes the market loses its mind. Baltimore is catching a point this week because half the roster is banged up and Lamar Jackson won’t be playing, and that injury list is being treated like the obituary section. Suddenly, the Ravens—winners of six straight in this series, 5-1 ATS, and fresh off a 31-2 humiliation of these same Texans on Christmas Day—are being priced like they’re the ones stuck in football purgatory. This is where perception and reality collide. Baltimore’s defense has been awful through four games, bottom-ten in nearly every category, but bad defenses in September don’t necessarily stay bad once October hits. Even with the scratches, this is still an organization that drafts, develops, and competes at a level Houston has never sniffed. You want to sell Baltimore at the cheapest they’ve been in over a decade? We’ll happily buy.

 

Baltimore has been embarrassed two weeks in a row, capped by a blowout loss to Kansas City that has the media writing their obituary. That’s precisely the moment to pounce. Teams with Baltimore’s pedigree don’t just roll over and die after being humiliated on national television. This week is “rally time.” Every single player in that Ravens locker room knows their pride is on the line, and you’re going to get a full 60-minute effort from a roster that has been called out and questioned all week. This is a spot where toughness, culture, and organizational backbone matter—and the Ravens have all three in spades.

 

Houston, meanwhile, is the same clown show in a different hat. We keep hearing about how the Texans “turned the corner” in 2023. Spare us. That division title came against a schedule filled with blind squirrels and rotten acorns. They finished with a zero point differential, blew multiple fourth-quarter leads, and saw their “instant franchise QB” get sacked into a shell of himself by December. Their offensive line is a hazard to human life. C.J. Stroud spent last season running for his existence, and if you think plugging in bargain-bin linemen and promoting assistant coaches fixes that, you haven’t been paying attention. Houston has always been a franchise built on “could have” and “almost,” and nothing about this year suggests otherwise.

 

So let’s call this what it is: a market overreaction of the highest order. The Ravens have injuries, yes. They’ve been humiliated in back-to-back weeks, sure. But this is still Baltimore, an organization that plays with pedigree, depth, and culture that Houston can’t manufacture with all the PR in the world. This is a proud locker room, and after being dragged through the mud, they’ll bring everything they have for 60 minutes. Houston is pure garbage—always has been, always will be. When a team this fraudulent is favored over Baltimore, that’s your tell. Buy the Ravens when no one else will. Recommendation: Baltimore +1.

 

Las Vegas +7 over Indianapolis

1:00 PM ET. The Colts are 3-1, putting up 30 points a game, and they’re being priced here like a runaway freight train. They are not. That’s precisely what makes this one attractive.

The market loves Indy. They’ve been cashing tickets, they’ve got Daniel Jones playing the best ball of his life, and now they get to face a Raiders side sitting at 1-3 with Geno Smith looking washed and Kolton Miller just hitting IR. That’s the sell-job. That’s the bait. We’re not biting.

The Colts are coming off their first loss and are now being asked to spot a full touchdown without Xavien Howard, their most experienced corner, who just retired midweek. Their secondary is suddenly thin and banged up, and if there’s a place to get caught, it’s when the market inflates a team off an early-season scoring binge.

Las Vegas, meanwhile, is catching seven after losing three straight, including a one-point heartbreaker to Chicago where they controlled most of the game. They have their own issues, yes, but rookie RB Ashton Jeanty is a legit problem for defenses. He leads the league in broken tackles, and he gives the Raiders a physical dimension that will travel well.

The other piece? Geno Smith. He’s been a turnover machine through four weeks, which is exactly why we’re getting inflated value. He’s not going to keep throwing picks at this clip forever, and even with his struggles, the Raiders have been competitive.

This number says the Colts are in the same weight class as the league’s heavy hitters. They are not. They’re overvalued, missing key pieces, and facing a Raiders team that has been snake-bitten but not lifeless. Recommendation: Las Vegas +7

New Orleans -2½ over New York Giants

1:00 PM ET. The spotlight is on rookie Jaxson Dart after his debut last week, and the narrative is impossible to ignore. He avoided a brutal historical trend by winning his first start, but that trend looms large: quarterbacks making their first career start have gone 14-35 straight-up over the last five seasons. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans’ second-year signal-caller, is sitting at 0-10 in his first 10 starts, a streak only surpassed historically by DeShone Kizer and Stan Gelbaugh. The Saints’ defense knows all about the pitfalls of untested quarterbacks, and they’re ready to exploit it.

The Giants come in energized after their 21-18 upset of the previously undefeated Chargers. Dart did enough to earn the win, but he showed cracks: five sacks, hesitation in the pocket, and a modest 5.6 yards per pass attempt. The loss of star receiver Malik Nabers will further limit New York’s offensive ceiling. While the Giants have momentum, their rookie quarterback is still learning to command an NFL huddle under pressure, and New Orleans’ defense has the talent and experience to make him uncomfortable all afternoon.

Meanwhile, Rattler has kept the Saints competitive despite the 0-4 start, putting the team in one-score games late in three of those losses. He’s completing 67.1% of his passes for 191 yards per game, adding a dual-threat element with six rushes for 49 yards last week. The Saints’ offense has enough weapons and balance to control the tempo and keep the ball away from Dart and a young Giants squad. Dart’s first win might have been a flash, but consistency is a different challenge. Oh, the G-Men also have the rival Eagles on Thursday Night Football if you need a cherry on top of this sundae. Recommendation: New Orleans -2½

Arizona-7½ over Tennessee

 

4:05 PM ET. The Cardinals come in with something to prove after dropping back-to-back games by a combined four points to NFC West rivals. Arizona has shown resilience in tight spots, most recently battling back from a 14-point deficit against Seattle before losing on a last-second field goal. Kyler Murray, throwing two fourth-quarter touchdown passes in that contest, continues to carry this offense, and receivers like Marvin Harrison Jr. have proven they can deliver in pressure moments—even after shaky first halves.

 

Tennessee, meanwhile, is a mess. The Titans are 0-4 and have been outscored by 69 points. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward has struggled mightily, completing just 51.2% of his throws for 614 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. The first overall pick has already faced brutal growing pains, and now he must lead his team into a hostile environment on the road against an Arizona team that has won their last three meetings, including a 38-13 blowout in 2021. The pressure and expectations on Ward are immense, and there’s little evidence he’s ready to navigate it successfully against a team of this caliber. Recommendation: Arizona -7½

 

Tampa Bay +3½ over Seattle

 

4:05 PM ET. The injury report alone makes this a fascinating spot for sharp bettors. The Buccaneers look like a walking roster casualty list—16 players either limited or out this week—including stars like Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Sterling Shepherd, and Bucky Irving. Tampa Bay wasn’t even able to hold a full practice on Wednesday, resorting to a walk-through instead. On the surface, this seems like a team primed to get steamrolled on the road against a Seattle squad tied atop the NFC West.

 

Seattle, however, hasn’t exactly been flawless. The Seahawks rebounded from a season-opening loss to win three straight, but each victory has come in tight fashion. Last Thursday, they needed a 52-yard field goal from Jason Myers as time expired to overcome a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against Arizona. Quarterback Sam Darnold has played efficiently, completing 70% of his passes and piling up 905 yards with five touchdowns, but he hasn’t faced a team with the playoff pedigree of a Baker Mayfield-led Tampa Bay unit that has thrived as an underdog in recent years.

 

Baker Mayfield has been impressive at rallying this banged-up roster. Despite the injury issues and a 31-25 loss to Philadelphia last week, the Bucs are 15-8 against the spread as an underdog with Mayfield under center. They’ve also fared well on cross-country trips in recent years, covering at San Francisco in 2023 and at the Chargers last season, which is key for a Pacific Time Zone kickoff.

 

The matchup also has interesting narrative angles: Mayfield and Darnold go back to the 2018 draft, both having bounced around and even sharing the field in Carolina in 2022. Both quarterbacks are familiar with adversity, but the Bucs’ coaching staff has shown an ability to maximize their limited talent.

 

Seattle has won—and covered—its last three games, but the combination of travel, the Buccaneers’ resilience under Mayfield, and the inflated point spread makes Tampa Bay an attractive play here. The line underestimates the Bucs’ ability to stay competitive despite missing so much talent. Recommendation: Tampa Bay +3½

 

Washington +3 over L.A. Chargers

 

4:25 PM ET. On paper, this looks like a dangerous spot to step in front of Jim Harbaugh, who has been a covering machine in the first half of seasons going back to his San Francisco days. Even with last week’s loss in New York, Harbaugh-coached teams are 28-11-2 against the spread in September and October. That’s a hell of a trend, and oddsmakers know it. They also know the public is going to line up on the Chargers after Washington’s defense was shredded in Atlanta. We’re not buying it.

 

The Bolts are running on fumes up front. Joe Alt, their prized rookie left tackle, went down with a high ankle sprain last week, and Rashawn Slater was already lost for the year. Mekhi Becton is in concussion protocol. That leaves Justin Herbert behind a line cobbled together with Foster Sarell and practice-squad types. Herbert was pressured on nearly half his dropbacks against the Giants and got hit 12 times. He’s been sacked 12 times through four games. If you think that’s sustainable against any NFL defense, it isn’t.

 

Washington gets Jayden Daniels back this week, and that’s the spark this offense needs. Marcus Mariota filled in admirably, but Daniels gives them an entirely different dynamic with his legs and decision-making. He’s playing his first pro game in California, where he grew up, so the spot should have extra juice for him. The Commanders have moved the ball just fine without him, scoring 27 last week in Atlanta. Daniels steps in against a Chargers defense ranked third in yards allowed, but that number is a little misleading. They’ve benefited from opponent red-zone failures more than from truly dominant play.

 

Yes, Washington’s defense was embarrassing last week, missing 12 tackles and allowing 435 yards to Atlanta. That only helps us here, because it keeps this line shaded toward L.A. That unit is better than it showed, and against a Chargers O-line in tatters, they’ll look much sharper. Dorance Armstrong and Montez Sweat should be living in Herbert’s lap. Recommendation: Washington +3

 

New England +8 over Buffalo

 

8:15 PM ET. The market loves Buffalo, and why wouldn’t it? They’re 4-0, they’ve scored 30 or more in every game, and they’ve covered comfortably while doing it. They’re the last unbeaten team in the AFC and riding a 14-game home winning streak. The narrative is locked in: the Bills are a juggernaut, the gap between them and everyone else is wide, and Orchard Park is a fortress. That’s exactly why we’re stepping in here.

 

The Patriots are being spotted a pile of inflated points in a divisional game they’ve historically played Buffalo tight. New England upset the Bills outright as an 8½-point underdog last year, then beat them again in Week 18. Buffalo’s offense looks unstoppable, but the oddsmakers aren’t giving enough weight to New England’s ability to drag this into the mud.

 

Stefon Diggs’ return to Buffalo adds extra juice to the narrative. The focus is all on his “homecoming” angle, but beneath the surface is where the value sits. Diggs looked like vintage Diggs last week, putting up 101 yards on six catches against Carolina. If he’s healthy and locked in, he gives the Patriots’ offense a real weapon to keep drives alive and finish in the red zone. The market is pricing Buffalo like New England doesn’t have an answer, yet Diggs alone shifts that math.

 

Buffalo’s defense has holes. Ed Oliver and Matt Milano are working their way back from injuries. Spencer Brown, their starting right tackle, is also dinged up. This is not a fully healthy Bills team, even though the scoreboard has masked it. The Saints, with a sophmore pivot in Spencer Rattler, moved the ball between the 20s last week, and if not for two red-zone failures, that game looks much closer.

 

We’re not betting New England because they’re pretty. We’re betting them because this number is bloated. Buffalo’s dominance, their home streak, and the overreactions to gaudy scores have pushed this line up to where it’s begging you to lay the lumber.

Divisional games rarely follow the script. New England has already shown it can punch Buffalo in the mouth, and Mike Vrabel has seen these Bills plenty from his days in Tennessee. This isn’t a matchup where he’ll be blindsided. Patriots’ defense will force Buffalo to grind instead of freewheeling, and as long as New England gets anything out of its offense, the back door is wide open. Recommendation: New England +8