Pinnacle  +100  BET365  +100   Sportsinteraction  +100

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Chicago +100 over Dallas

4:25 PM EST. If you’re betting this game based on how bad the Bears looked last week or how decent Dallas has looked so far — congratulations, you're part of the market overreaction we’re fading. This is the very definition of a buy-low, sell-high opportunity. Chicago just got embarrassed by Detroit in a game where absolutely nothing went right. The Bears are being priced like an expansion team, and the market is treating them as if they're already 0-10. Meanwhile, Dallas is riding high off a dramatic, emotionally draining win over the Giants and a solid cover against the Eagles in Week 1. Now the Cowboys hit the road for a non-conference game sandwiched between divisional battles — with the Packers on deck in prime time on Sunday Night Football. That’s a classic letdown setup.

We get it: the Bears' offensive metrics are horrendous. They’re bottom of the barrel in EPA/play, success rate, and especially bad on the ground. Caleb Williams has looked completely overwhelmed but that’s precisely the moment value emerges — when the public piles on, and the oddsmakers are forced to overadjust. Let’s also not pretend Dallas is elite: they needed a last-second field goal then OT to beat Daniel Jones, and their defense made Russell Wilson look like 2014 vintage. This isn’t a juggernaut.

Dallas thrives in some spots but this isn’t that. They’re laying points on the road, after an emotional high, and before a spotlight SNF game against Green Bay. That’s three straight high-leverage weeks with travel and fatigue baked in. Meanwhile, the Bears haven’t been competitive and the media has been ripping them apart. This was supposed to be the turnaround year for the Bears and now they’re being written off. This is an underrated opportunity for Caleb Williams to show signs of life and for Chicago to get off the mat in front of a home crowd.

You don’t have to like the Bears to bet the Bears. This is purely a numbers and narrative play. The market perception of Dallas has completely outrun their actual ability, and Chicago is now a laughingstock — but the NFL punishes overconfidence and rewards contrarian thinking. Chicago is the ugly side — and it’s absolutely the right side. Recommendation: Chicago +1

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