Pinnacle  +6½ -110  BET365  +6½ -110   Sportsinteraction  +6½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

NY Jets +6½ over Tampa Bay

1:00 PM ET. The Buccaneers are 2-0, and the market is buying into it. They’ve won both games in dramatic fashion, scoring game-winning drives inside the final minute. That’s not dominance, that’s coin-flip football going their way. Tampa hasn’t started 3-0 in 20 years, yet here they are spotting a touchdown with a quarterback nursing multiple leg issues and an offensive line that’s already down key starters. Calijah Kancey, their best defensive lineman, just went to IR, and both trenches are getting thinner by the week.

The Jets, meanwhile, have looked dreadful with Justin Fields, but he’s out, and Tyrod Taylor brings the kind of stability this offense needs. He’s seen every coverage and every blitz package the league can throw at him. He doesn’t make big mistakes, and that alone is an upgrade over what New York has gotten the last two weeks. The Jets’ defense is also better than it has shown — anchored by a front that can pressure Mayfield, who’s already been taking hits in both wins. The market is throwing this number because of the Jets’ 0-2 record and quarterback situation, not the true matchup.

This is a bad favorite profile. Tampa is living off reputation and close-game variance, while New York comes in undervalued with a veteran QB who can manage the game. The Buccaneers aren’t built to separate, and laying this kind of lumber is asking for trouble. That puts us squarely on the Jets plus the inflated points.

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