Posted Friday at 12:00pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 3

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, September 21

New England +1½ over Pittsburgh

1:00 PM ET. It’s always dangerous to back a bad team just because the other one looks worse, but this number is short for a reason. The Steelers’ defense is leaking oil and the market has yet to fully price that in. They’ve allowed 61 points through two weeks — to Justin Fields and Sam Darnold. Those aren’t quarterbacks that should be lighting up anyone, yet Pittsburgh sits bottom-five in virtually every advanced defensive category. Attrition, thin depth, call it whatever you want, the reality is this unit has been pushed around on the ground and beaten over the top.

The Patriots aren’t contenders, but they’re at least showing signs of life. Drake Maye has settled in as QB1, and since he took over mid-last year, New England games are cashing overs at a 70% clip. That’s because the kid can sling it and he’s got no fear, which means quick points for both sides. New England dropped 33 on Miami last week and suddenly has a shot at consecutive wins for the first time in three years.

Pittsburgh’s problems aren’t getting solved in one week. Their offensive line is shaky, their defense is getting gashed, and their key defenders are already on the injury report. New England, meanwhile, leads the league in sacks, which is a bad recipe for a Steelers team that can’t keep its quarterback upright. The Patriots still have a leaky secondary, but facing Aaron Rodgers and Maye this week is a big step up in class from what Pittsburgh has seen so far.

The market is hanging on to the “Pittsburgh toughness” label, but that was years ago. Right now, they’re a bottom-tier defense catching respect on reputation. The Patriots aren’t pretty, but they’re undervalued in this spot, and Foxborough isn’t a place where bad defenses come to fix themselves. Recommendation: New England +1½

Carolina +5½ over Atlanta

1:00 PM EST. This line screams market overreaction, and it all stems from Atlanta’s dominant win over the Vikings on Sunday Night Football — the most visible game of the week. That’s when the market adjusts the hardest, and often the most irrationally. The Falcons took care of business in prime time and now find themselves laying nearly a touchdown against a divisional opponent that nearly came back from 27–3 last week. That’s a swing of almost seven points from the preseason lookahead line, when Carolina was a -1½-point favorite.

Yes, the Panthers are a mess — we get it. But this is about value, not style points. Atlanta’s win was methodical, not explosive. Michael Penix Jr. barely threw the ball, and Bijan Robinson did all the heavy lifting. Meanwhile, Bryce Young quietly threw for 328 yards in a near-miraculous comeback against Arizona. Sure, it came against soft coverage, but sometimes a struggling quarterback just needs to “see the ball go in,” like a basketball shooter finding rhythm. This could be the start of a momentum shift — and Atlanta’s defense, while opportunistic, isn’t elite.

Situationally, this is a terrible spot for Atlanta. They're coming off the emotional high of a standalone prime-time win, and now they’re being asked to win by a margin against a divisional foe. These NFC South matchups are notoriously tight — 7 of the last 10 meetings have been one-score games, with two going to OT. Let’s not ignore the pressure now placed on Penix and the Falcons offense: the expectations have jumped, and the margin for error is thin against a team with nothing to lose.

This is a classic “hold your nose” bet — but that’s where profit lives. Atlanta has gone from underrated to very overrated in the span of two weeks. Carolina has been written off entirely. We’re stepping in right between the two. The number is inflated, the setup is perfect, and this is one of the most mispriced underdogs on the board.

Washington -3 over Las Vegas

1:00 PM ET. The buzz surrounding this matchup is all about quarterback uncertainty for the Commanders, but the line tells the story: Jayden Daniels is unlikely to play. If he misses, veteran Marcus Mariota steps in, a guy familiar with the Raiders from his time in Las Vegas. Mariota has shown he can manage the offense efficiently, completing 34 of 44 passes for four touchdowns already this season. With a healthy supporting cast and a stable offensive game plan, Washington isn’t exactly losing much in terms of production, and the market may be overreacting to the Daniels storyline.

Washington’s defense is also poised to take advantage. With Preston Smith joining the pass rush and the Raiders dealing with a depleted offensive line, Geno Smith and his group are in for a long afternoon. Las Vegas has struggled to put points on the board, averaging just 14.5 per game, and their rushing attack with Ashton Jeanty has yet to gain traction. Injuries and short rest from Monday night travel further hamper the Raiders’ chances to keep this close, especially against a Commanders squad that has been aggressive in pressuring opposing quarterbacks.

This is one of those spots where the narrative — quarterback drama and last-minute roster chatter — inflates the line slightly in the market’s eyes. Washington gets home-field advantage, a rested team, and a defense capable of disrupting Las Vegas’ limited offensive weapons. Taking the points with a Commanders squad that has both experience and depth at key positions looks like a solid and practical play for Sunday. Recommendation: Washington -3

Tennessee +4 over Indianapolis

1:00 PM ET. The market loves streaks, and that’s part of the problem here. Indianapolis has won and covered four straight over Tennessee after the Titans owned this series for years. That narrative, combined with the Colts’ hot start, has inflated this line to the point where Tennessee offers real value. Indy got a miracle last week — a last-second penalty gift against Denver — and while the numbers look shiny (no punts, top-three in EPA/play), those are precisely the kind of early-season statistical darlings that bettors get suckered into chasing.

The Titans are a mess on paper: 0-8 straight up since November, 1-7 ATS in that stretch, with leaky protection and a rookie quarterback learning on the fly. Yet they’ve faced two quality opponents, were competitive into the second half in both, and now catch the Colts outside of their dome comfort zone. Cam Ward’s mobility showed flashes against the Rams, Tony Pollard has been close to breaking a big game, and Indianapolis still has injury concerns at key skill positions. This isn’t about pretending Tennessee is good — it’s about recognizing when the market has gone too far in one direction.

Every year, we see early-season overreactions create inflated numbers, and this is one of them. Indianapolis has suddenly been priced like a contender after two games, while Tennessee has been buried after a bad home loss. Neither extreme is accurate. Division games often play tighter than the line suggests, and spotting road points against a Titans team that has nothing to lose and a quarterback who is only getting better is bankroll busting proposition over time. This is a classic buy-low on a team nobody wants, which is exactly where we want to be. Recommendation: Tennessee +4

Jacksonville -1½ over Houston

1:00 PM ET. The market loves history. Houston has owned Jacksonville for the better part of 15 years, winning 12 of the last 14 head-to-heads and seven straight in Duval. That storyline is everywhere, and it’s the only reason Houston isn’t a bigger dog here. What’s overlooked is the current state of these two teams, because if you strip away the “Texans always beat the Jags” angle, this number looks short.

The Texans are 0-2 and dead last in the league in scoring offense at 14 points per game. They’re 31st in rushing success rate, Stroud has been sacked six times already, and the offensive line is a patchwork unit with no fix in sight. Injuries across the receiving corps leave Houston short-handed again, and their new play-caller has produced a bottom-five offense through two weeks. Those are structural problems, not bad luck. The fact they’ve lost by a combined six points only masks how ineffective they’ve been with the ball.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, has positives hidden beneath a 1-1 record. They lead the NFL in takeaways, they rank first in rushing yards per game, and Travis Etienne looks like the league’s most explosive back not named Jonathan Taylor. The Bengals clipped them late last week, but the Jags still piled up nearly 400 yards of offense and forced three picks. Spotting less than a field goal at home to an opponent that can’t block, can’t run, and is living off past results is a discount we’re happy to pay. The streak says Houston, but the value screams Jacksonville. Recommendation: Jacksonville -1½

Denver +3 over LA Chargers

4:05 PM ET. The Broncos enter this matchup with a bitter taste in their mouths after a controversial loss to the Colts in Week 2, one where a missed field goal and a leverage penalty snatched victory away from Denver. Bo Nix and the Broncos offense had moments of promise, including a three-touchdown performance from Nix and a strong connection with J.K. Dobbins, but the team couldn’t sustain production late in the game. While Denver’s 1-1 record looks pedestrian, the way they’ve been competitive against strong opponents suggests they aren’t far off from a big performance, especially against a Chargers team dealing with key injuries on defense.

Los Angeles enters this Week 3 contest as the only undefeated team in the AFC West, but the road hasn’t been easy. They’ve been without linebacker Khalil Mack for the early part of the season and lost Denzel Perryman to injury, yet a shorthanded defense still managed to slow the Raiders and control the ball. Justin Herbert continues to show poise and efficiency, throwing five touchdowns without an interception through two games, and the Chargers now finally have the comfort of a home game after two road victories. Their combination of a high-powered offense and opportunistic defense makes them a formidable opponent.

The line, however, doesn’t fully account for Denver’s motivation and the Chargers’ vulnerabilities. This is a team coming off a near-win that could have easily been a victory, facing an LA team dealing with multiple defensive injuries and still adjusting to its first home game of the season. The Broncos are built to exploit those weaknesses, and Sean Payton’s squad should come out with intensity and efficiency, making Denver a sharp play in what could be a tightly contested and high-scoring affair. Recommendation: Denver +3

New Orleans +7 over Seattle

 

4:05 PM ET. Seattle put up 31 last week on Pittsburgh and suddenly the market wants you to believe that Sam Darnold has turned into Joe Montana. That’s the NFL in a nutshell—one week’s performance drives the line, while everything else gets tossed aside. The Seahawks are being priced here like a top-five team, and we’re not buying. Kenneth Walker looked great, Cooper Kupp was involved, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba flashed, but it’s still Sam Darnold at quarterback and Seattle still has major holes in the trenches. One clean game against a fragile Steelers team doesn’t erase who they are at their core.

 

Meanwhile, New Orleans rolls into this one 0-2, and the narrative writes itself: “rebuilding, rookie QB, no chance in Seattle.” That’s exactly the type of team we want to get behind. Spencer Rattler hasn’t been perfect, but the kid competes, and this offense has actually moved the ball in spurts. The Saints were a handful of plays from beating Arizona in Week 1 and nearly pulled one off against San Francisco despite trotting out half of a practice squad at wideout. That’s not nothing. The box scores show losses, but the underlying play suggests a team that’s hanging around and improving.

 

The betting window is where perception meets reality, and this number is inflated on Seattle hype. New Orleans isn’t flying across the country to roll over, and history shows us the Saints have a knack for giving the Seahawks problems. Seven points is a mountain in the NFL, and the underdog is absolutely live here. While we’re down on New Orleans long-term, in this spot they’re the value play. Recommendation: New Orleans +7.

 

San Francisco -2½ over Arizona

 

4:25 PM ET. Arizona has opened the season with a gift-wrapped schedule that would make even the Ottawa Redblacks look competent. They’ve beaten the Saints, Panthers, and then got the 49ers in a compromised spot here. The Cards are 2-0, but their fourth quarter against Carolina told us all we needed to know. They allowed Bryce Young to march down the field twice, coughed up an onside kick, and threw an interception so absurd it should be preserved in Canton under “comedy.” That’s not the profile of a team we’re in a hurry to trust as a short home dog, let alone as a team the market is willing to flirt with as a favorite.

 

The market is treating Brock Purdy as if he’s already ruled out, which he isn’t. Even if he sits, San Francisco isn’t trotting out a pumpkin. Mac Jones is no world-beater, but he looked better against the Saints last week than Kyler Murray looked against the Panthers the week before. That’s damning. McCaffrey remains healthy (for now) and is good for 20+ touches, which is basically a cheat code against a team that was gashed by the worst Carolina offense since George Seifert. This is a Niners team that knows how to win ugly and still has plenty of defensive pieces to disrupt Arizona’s gimmicky momentum.

 

If you strip away the noise, this line is simply wrong. San Francisco is the far superior side, even with injuries, and they’re being discounted heavily for the possibility of no Purdy. That’s when you strike. Numbers like -1½ don’t last when the difference between these rosters is this wide. The Cardinals’ early fortune is about to run out, and we’ll gladly step in before the market corrects. Recommendation: San Francisco -1½.

 

NY Giants +6 over Kansas City

 

8:15 PM ET. Kansas City is 0-2, and the vultures are circling. The chatter this week will be endless: “What’s wrong with Mahomes?” “Are the Chiefs done?” “Is this the end of an era?” Forgive us if we’re not biting. The Chiefs are still dangerous, still armed with the best QB in the sport, and still plenty capable of turning this ship around. That said, perception is a powerful drug, and the market still insists on pricing them like the wrecking ball of old. Until they prove otherwise, we’ll happily take back inflated points against them.

 

Enter the Giants, a team with scars of their own, but who quietly fit the mold of a live dog here. They’ve been buried by the market thanks to last year’s ugly ATS record and another rough start, yet there’s more competency than they’re given credit for. Daniel Jones has weapons, the defense can bring pressure, and the Giants’ offense has a way of making life chaotic, which is exactly what you want when catching a number like this. Kansas City has covered just once in its last seven home games and has routinely been overvalued when laying more than a field goal. This spread assumes the Chiefs are still that ruthless juggernaut. They’re not.

Maybe Mahomes and company blow the doors off someone eventually, but until then, this is about playing the value. The Giants don’t need to be world-beaters, they just need to hang around against a team still searching for rhythm. Asking Kansas City to win by a full touchdown right now feels like a leap of faith, not a sharp wager. Our faith is elsewhere. Recommendation: Giants +6.