Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to chang

MIAMI +11½ over Buffalo (No bets)

Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY

8:15 PM ET. Buffalo has owned this rivalry. Six straight wins, Josh Allen 12-2 against the Fish, and a playoff beatdown on the résumé. Add in Miami’s 0-2 start and McDaniel’s “hot seat” chatter, and the market has a clear picture: Buffalo rolls again. It’s a predictable narrative, and the point spread reflects it.

That’s exactly where value lives. The Bills are 2-0, averaging 450 yards a game and 35 points, and that kind of box-score dominance is already baked into this inflated number. The public sees Allen, a high-flying offense, and a Miami defense giving up 33 per. What they don’t see is a short week, injuries mounting on Buffalo’s defense, and a number shaded two to three points too high.

Miami’s not as bad as the optics. Tua was nearly flawless against New England last week before one late mistake flipped the result. Hill, Waddle, and Achane all created chunk plays, and the offense put up 27 despite being buried early. That’s the profile of a team that can hang in a track meet. It also happens to be the exact profile that can slide through a back door.

Buffalo is great, but great teams don’t cover every week. The Bills have already cashed twice, including an emotional comeback against Baltimore followed by a rivalry beatdown of the Jets. Now it’s a divisional Thursday night, laying nearly a dozen, with road-traveling Miami desperate to save its season. That’s not a spot to be spotting lumber. That said, we are not getting mixed up in this one and will wait for better opportunities on Sunday. NO BETS

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