Pinnacle  +125  BET365  +125   Sportsinteraction  +125

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Tampa Bay +125 over Houston

NRG Stadium – Houston, TX

8:15 PM ET. Houston has now beaten Tampa Bay five straight times, including that 39-37 shootout back in November 2023. History aside, the Texans were one of our favorite fade teams coming into the season with an Under 9½ wins ticket, and their Week 1 performance against the Rams gave us no reason to reconsider.

Against Los Angeles, Houston committed 11 penalties, went 2-for-9 on third down, and turned the ball over twice. C.J. Stroud was sacked three times and pressured on over 40% of his dropbacks. Outside of Nico Collins, there is no consistent outlet in this offense, and the offensive line issues we flagged in the summer showed up immediately. Center Jake Andrews is out, guard Ed Ingram sat last week, and this is not the unit to be facing Todd Bowles’ blitz packages with.

The Buccaneers are not without issues of their own — injuries to Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs sting — but this isn’t about Tampa’s upside. It’s about Houston’s perception. The market keeps forcing them into the favorite’s role because of the hype around Stroud, but the results tell a different story. With Stroud starting, the Texans are just 7-12 against the spread as chalk over the past three seasons. That’s not variance; that’s a consistent overvaluation.

Tampa Bay may not be a juggernaut, but Baker Mayfield has already built trust with rookie Emeka Egbuka, and the Bucs defense has the tools to make Stroud’s night miserable. Houston is priced as if it’s a polished contender, yet it’s still a team struggling to block, struggling to stay disciplined, and struggling to move the chains.

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