Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -3 +104 3BET365 -3 +100 Sportsinteraction -3 +100  888Sport -3 +100

Philadelphia -3 +104 over Tampa Bay

8:15 PM EST. If the Eagles lose this, it will be a disaster since they were 10-1 and leading the NFC but then took a 1-5 nosedive. Their lone win over that span was a 33-25 home game versus the Giants. Otherwise, they lost to the 49ers, Cowboys, Seahawks, Cardinals, and a 17-point loss to the Giants last week. The Eagles' defense plummeted under new DC Sean Desai, who was replaced with Matt Patricia three weeks ago. Jalen Hurts injured his finger last week, DeVonta Smith was already out with an ankle injury, and A.J. Brown injured his knee. Two months ago, the Eagles looked like a lock to represent the NFC, and now, they are just a road team in the wild-card round with a 1-5 record over the last six weeks. To suggest Philadelphia’s stock is low would be understating it. 

The Buccaneers exceeded expectations this year with Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Rachaad White keeping the offense going. While the Eagles closes the year 1-5 over its last six games, the Buccaneers went 5-1. With Tom Brady gone, the Bucs' 8-9 record (and division title) seemed sure to drop, but they finished with a 9-8 record. Their 348 points scored were up from 318 last year. Aside from being crushed by the 49ers and Texans' passing offenses, the secondary has improved this season, and the Bucs are competitive when they play. 

That’s the setup here. We’re not going to break down the X’s and O’s because that’s what you’ll see, read and hear in about 1000 other places and it’s redundant. What we’re here to emphasize is value and in that regard, Philadelphia must be played and here’s why:

Tampa Bay is on an outstanding 8-2-1 Against the Spread (ATS) run and have clearly been the more consistent squad in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the Eagles have surprisingly dropped five of their last six, as they limp into the playoffs (0-6 ATS run). Philadelphia was actually still alive for the NFC East Title last week when they pulled a no show and were blown out by the Giants. The media and market are completely soured on the Eagles.

The last time the Eagles covered for their backers was way back on November 20th when they beat the Chiefs 21-17 as a +2½-point dog. If you fade the Eagles today, of course you may win, it’s football and it’s one game but man, are you ever late to the fade the Eagles ticket cashing party. That party started seven weeks ago and it was still going on last week. We’re strongly suggesting that you should not show up at that party now.  

Being in the buy-low, sell high business, this game checks every box. Philadelphia’s stock is at a season low and today we get them at a bargain basement price. Do not worry one bit about Philadelphia's injuries. We promise you that oddsmakers are fully aware of who is in and who is out and that it is factored into the line. The market wants little to do with Philadelphia, which is precisely the right time to move in.

Sherwood

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