Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.
Detroit -4½ over Seattle 1:00 PM EST. We’re having a hard time understanding this price because Seattle looked like garbage in its opener while the Lions beat the Chiefs, in Kansas City no less with the entire football world watching in the opening game of the year. Detroit was not lucky to beat Kansas City, as they were the better team by far. In any event, Detroit opened as a 6-point choice but the inefficient market has bet it down to the price you see here. You may want to jump on that price now if you’re on board with Detroit because chances are great that it’ll rise back up by Sunday. Why is the number dropping is a question that we must attempt to answer because it cannot be based on last week’s performance. Is it because the market has learned not to trust the Lions after one good performance? That’s possible. Is it because Pete Carroll and the Seachickens have a decent pedigree, especially when it comes to bouncing back after a bad loss? That’s possible too. Is it because Detroit’s win over Kansas was against a team that had several key injuries? Perhaps it’s a combination of all the above but here’s what we do know: These two teams came into the season with much hype, and only one of them lived up to it in Week One. Seattle, hosting the Rams, lost outright and were absolutely dominated, especially in the second half. The Seahawks allowed 426 yards and 27 first downs while picking up just 180 total yards and 13 first downs themselves. They rarely had possession of the ball, they couldn’t convert a third down and they had just 12 god damn yards in the second half. They’ll now play a team that was built to dominate offensively. If we’re keeping a “pitch count” Seattle’s defense might be gasping for air in the second half of this game, never mind that they have to fly across the country to play an early game while Detroit will have had three extra days of rest. If we look at some intangibles, like state of mind for instance, give another big edge to Detroit. The Lions won their opener in Kansas City against the reigning Super Bowl champs. That's a shot of more confidence that they are on the right track. Let’s not dismiss that the Seahawks were a genuine surprise last year. Coming off the loss of Russell Wilson, they were expected to struggle and start to rebuild. However, Geno Smith led them to a 9-8 record, a playoff berth, and cranked out a shocking amount of fantasy points from a passing game thought sure to decline. Well, Geno got paid and expectations were sky high coming into the season, which is a much different role from the role they were in last year. Seattle’s regression is very likely to continue here. Recommendation: Detroit -4½
Detroit -5 -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)