Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Chicago +125 over Tampa Bay
1:00 PM EST. The Bears go from being a one-point favorite over Green Bay to being an underdog at Tampa Bay. The Bucs go from being a 6-point pooch at Minnesota to being a 3-point home favorite over the Bears. We have an overreaction on both ends, especially on Chicago’s side, as the market was rightfully disgusted by the Bears performance last week.
Week 1 was everything that the Bears did not want to happen. A home loss to a diminished Packers, who had no trouble posting a 38-20 victory. All of the Bears upgrades and improvements touted in the offseason were nowhere to be seen. That wasn't supposed to happen. The incoming Packers were without Aaron Rodgers, but apparently, he signed the deed to the Bears over to Jordan Love before he left. The upgrades to the defense still allowed 245 passing yards and three touchdowns. The loss of David Montgomery has turned into a three-way race to mediocrity. Above all, the improvement in passing by Justin Fields just hasn't happened. They merely added new and more talented receivers for him to ignore or overthrow. Week 1 is over, and the fanbase is livid while calling for the firing of HC Matt Eberfus. The Bears have to hope it was just more of the Week 1 sloppiness that was rife in the NFL last Sunday.
The Buccaneers, quite the opposite, began their year with much reduced expectations and yet hit the road and took down the Vikings 20-17 in their stadium. This week helps to determine if the Bucs are really that good and the Bears are really still that bad. A betting man would say, "yeah, looks that way" but we are not the man on the street. We say buy low and sell high and Chicago’s stock has hit bottom.
The Bears have dropped 11 in a row straight up. They have failed to cover in four straight and have just one lousy cover in eight of their past nine dating back to last year. Bears headlines in the Chicago Sun Times on Monday Morning after getting humiliated by Jordan Love and the Packers.
“More of the Shame”
“Same old, Same old”
If your strategy is to fade the Bears this week, you are very late to the “fade the Bears ticket cashing party”. We are not here to break down the X’s and O’s. That’s not our forte. You can read about the X’s and O’s in 1000 different places. We’re here to point out where the value lies and in that regard, Chicago is the only play here based on their stock being extremely low because of multiple poor performances and the market being sick of it.
Tampa won last week not because they were good but because Minnesota turned the ball over three times, yet the Bucs only won by three. Baker Mayfield had a lousy 173 years and now because of all the heat negative media influence that surrounds the Bears, we get here in Week 2 at a true discount. This might be one of the better plays on the board.
Chicago +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)