Posted September 7, 2023 Prior to Week 1. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle u8½ +145  BET365 u8½ +130 Sportsinteraction u8½ +129 888Sport u8½ +130

Seattle u8½ +145

When the 2022 season started, there was to be a legit two-man quarterback competition between Geno Smith and Drew Lock, but it did not take long for the dust to settle on that with Smith emerging as the clear cut #1 pivot. Now, we're not going to take anything away from Smith, who was a former first-round draft pick who might finally be reaching his full potential, but we also know there is a massive difference in mindset from one competing tooth and nail just to eat scraps and one then moving into the penthouse with a personal chef. That is to say, Geno finally got paid. Dolla dolla bills, y’all, to the tune of $105-million over three years with a $27-million signing bonus and $40-million guaranteed. Now, maybe Smith sees every dollar of that deal, but it will take him through his 35-year-old season in 2025. In short, dude is a late bloomer.

We’re not going to break down Smith’s film, or what he does and doesn't do right, as it’s not the story that is going to define the Seahawks' season. Skill is not the issue here, mindset and the potential complacency and the pressure that comes with finally making some life-changing money and the expectations that are saddled with those fat stacks of cash. Furthermore, as we mentioned, Smith is coming off a career year and thus, if you buy Seattle now, you would be buying high. If you bought Seattle prior to last year, you bought low and that’s a strategy we can get on board with. If you buy Seattle this year, you are likely a year too late.

When looking at the Seahawks' schedule, we must start with what looks like a wide-open NFC West, as there are question marks all over the NFC West. The 49ers are favored to win the division, but they are all in with Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy as their starting quarterback always trying to break through, Sam Darnold, who you might remember was the #2 overall pick in the draft as his backup. After the 49ers at -175 to win the division or thereabouts, you will find the Seahawks +220, the Rams +900, and the Cardinals +2500. On the surface, it looks like a two-horse race and it probably will be but the Rams and Cards will win some games and it’s also worth noting that Kyler Murray (Arizona) should be back by Week 4, 5 or 6. The Cards and Seachickens will play in Week 7 and again in Week 18.

When breaking down Seattle’s 17-game slate, the first block of games to look at is their first month, which will be rewarded with a bye in Week 5. That might sound nice right now, but talk to us in Week 13 when the Seachickens head to Dallas, which is a game that is sandwiched between two dates with division favorite San Francisco. That will be Seattle’s eighth game after their bye, and it’s a brutal stretch, for which they’ll be rewarded with five more games, where they must alternate home and away contests going to San Fran, then home for a date with the Eagles in Week 15, a trip to Tennessee in Week 16, home to play the Steelers in Week 17, and finally ending that brutal stretch with a Week 18 game in Arizona.

That sounds like a reward for a hard-fought season, but that game in the desert is no vacation. The path that leads to Arizona is littered with major opportunities for the Seahawks to fall flat on their faces. After the Rams in Week 1, Seattle heads to Detroit, where the Lions are favored to win the NFC North, before returning home for a game versus the new-look Panthers and then heading back on the road to face the Giants on Monday Night Football. After Week 5, Seattle has road games at Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Dallas. The Seachickens are tied with the Broncos for the 12th toughest schedule this season. Perhaps where we find the most value in this number is that the Seahawks were pegged to win eight games last season by Football Outsiders, and they went 9-8 but were also considered one of the “surprise” teams because Geno Smith came out of nowhere to have a big year. After a big overachievement comes regression and even if it’s just a modest misstep, we’ll be skipping to the pay window to cash this ticket.

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