Posted at 2:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -2 +100 - BET365 -2 -110 Sportsinteraction -2½ -110 888Sport -2½ -110

Buffalo -2 @ New York Jets

8:15 PM EST. The NFL entertainment-machine wants you to love the revamped New York Jets this season and the truth is-- it's hard to resist. Often lauded by football analysts as one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever live, one-time Super Bowl winner Aaron Rodgers spent his entire career with the Green Bay Packers; 18 seasons, to be exact. This year he'll suit up in a different shade of green and he certainly seems to be enjoying himself in the Big Apple. We've seen Rodgers at sporting events with his teammates throughout the offseason, milking all the NYC media attention he can. It's all smiles and laughs for the Jets' "savior," as some of his teammates referred to him on this year's season of HBO's Hard Knocks. Cringy, but we get it. After all, the Jets came real close to making the playoffs last season, in a jam-packed AFC, with some of the worst quarterback play of any team.

The Jets defense has improved leaps and bounds since Robert Saleh became the Jets' head coach in 2021, and last season they were easily one of the best units in the league. Naturally, many would assume that adding an NFL legend and four-time MVP at quarterback would position the Jets for more success this season. That might come to fruition by January, but we’re not sure if they'll feel that way after tonight.

You see, like any profession, pro-teams must go through natural stages of development. Traditionally, organizational psychologists refer to these stages in four-parts: storming, forming, norming, and performing. When a team is newly formed, storming is the phase where things can get sloppy as each team-member is navigating their new role. Performing is the most advanced stage, indicating that a team is in-sync and operating as one unit, fluid and full of chemistry, as members settle in and recognize their part as a cog in the greater operation. For the Jets' defense, it's likely they're already "performing" at a high-level together. This is a group that's been kept intact, they're healthy, and they were a top-5 unit in virtually every category that mattered last season. We’re not so certain about their offense.

Aaron Rodgers has been in the NFL for nearly two decades, but this is still a new stadium, a new crowd, new lights and surroundings, and a new brand of pressure with a team that's expected to go far with all of its talent. Maybe New York's offense is already forming and norming-- the Jets' faithful certainly hope so-- but there's a good chance that they're not symbiotic just yet. That's not good when you're about to face one of the NFL's best outfits, on both sides of the ball.

The Bills have been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL for three years and running, losing only 12 games the last three seasons. Last year, they were a top 10 offense and defense, falling short of the AFC Championship game after the emotional roller-coaster that followed Damar Hamlin's injury. Unlike their opponent tonight, they've flown under the radar during the offseason, quietly building momentum and poised for another deep run in the AFC Playoffs. In 2022 only the Eagles and Chiefs had better point differentials.

Von Miller won't play tonight-- their defense will be really good once he finally returns-- but Buffalo's defense is stacked with talent. Rodgers will have to contend with a defense that only allowed 5.9 yards per pass (5th) and a 61.9% completion percentage (9th) to its opponents last season. He'll also need to fend off pressure from one of the best front-sevens in the NFL, and we know that's a concern for New York. Even Hard Knocks couldn't circumvent Rodgers' concerns with his offensive line. Maligned right-tackle Mekhi Becton has a lot to prove this year, and both Becton and Duane Brown (left tackle) are questionable heading into tonight's contest. Yikes.

Josh Allen leads one of the most efficient and explosive offenses in the NFL. Last season they were 2nd in yards per game (394.9), 3rd in points/play (0.426), 3rd in points per game (27.7), and 1st in third down conversion rate (50.23%)-- and they did it against one of the toughest schedules in the league. This is an advanced offense in every tangible and intangible way. Even better, the Bills reloaded at offensive line, hoping they've fixed their weak spots by bringing in long-time Dallas left guard Connor McGovern and drafting for more depth. Jets' bettors hoping that their offense can come close to what the Bills are capable of at this stage, in Week 1? Well, that's a rather large assumption.

The Bills at -2 are a discount. You're getting under the key number of "3," and you're wagering on a team that's proven its dominance in the regular season via a large sample size. As hard as it may be, this is a great opportunity to dismiss all the hype and hoopla of the new-look Jets. The Bills are as well-positioned as ever, and they'll take it personal that they've been relatively ignored leading up to this big matchup. Don't be surprised if Rodgers goes from deity to diva after one game. This one is a bargain.

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