Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:00 PM EST odds are subject to change.
Cleveland +2½ over Pittsburgh
1:00 PM EST. This game is a f**king beauty. Really. There might not be a better bet on the board than the Browns. At the very least, they are going to be a team that is not lacking in motivation despite what the talking heads and pick sellers would have you believe. We read so much when we research these games from mainstream articles to the industry “dirt sheets” that are peddled by the likes of Marc Lawrence and the rest of his ilk in Vegas. To a man, the Steelers are the “best bet” of the week. They have everything to play for. It’s a “must win” with the playoffs on the line. Of all the useless, tired, bullshit angles out there, fading the “must win” just might be our favorite.
The Browns played their asses off last week with a chance to ruin the former Football Team’s playoff aspirations and did just that in a 24-10 win. We pointed out last week in our writeup on the Brownies that their Estimated Win total (now eight) and Strength of Schedule (sixth toughest) suggested they deserved a better fate than many teams this season, Washington included. Pittsburgh included, too.
Who knows where Cleveland would have finished had they stuck with Jacoby Brissett at QB, but when you are paying a dude like Deshaun Watson over $200-million in guaranteed money, the latter is going to play. With five games now under his belt, Watson looks to have his legs and his arm back. The Browns are so dangerous and are loaded with weapons, but the market perception is that they have nothing to play for. Really?
If Cleveland was able to bring its “A” game in an inter-conference game against a team they never play, just how motivated do you think the Brownies are going to be to go into Pittsburgh with a chance to end the Steelers season, just as the bandwagon is bursting at its seems? How about a metric f**k ton.
We’re not going to say much about the Steelers, but we’ll close with a reminder that they were considered complete ratshit not that long ago and nothing has changed. The situation, this modest price, and so much more dictates the play. There is tremendous value to be had, as the wrong side is favored here.
Cleveland +2½ +106 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.12)