Jacksonville @ Houston
Houston +3½ -105 over Jacksonville

Posted at 12:15 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +3½ -105 BET365 +3½ -110 SportsInteraction +3½ -105 888Sport +3½ -110

Houston +3½ over Jacksonville

1:00 PM EST. What is on the line here for Jacksonville has been well publicized, as the Jaguars have played their way into first place in the AFC South, as the Titans continue to free fall. We “like” what the Jags are cooking up under Trevor Lawrence and head coach Doug Pederson. Unfortunately, it doesn’t matter what we “like,” or “think,” or “feel.” Those are all words that should be removed from any sports bettor's vocabulary.

How can we not like Jacksonville? Duval County has won four of their last five games both straight up and against the spread. When you start winning and cashing tickets in a market where winning and cashing tickets is the most influential thing you can do, you are going to get noticed.

We don’t want to be the ones to rain on this potential playoff parade, but in the grand scheme of things this is a meaningless game for the Jaguars. Much like the Titans, who took their Thursday night game in Dallas off in advance of a winner take all game against the Jaguars next week, the Jags do not benefit from a win of any kind here. Seriously, do the math. Even if the Jags win this week to go to 8-8, if they lose to Tennessee next week, both they and the Titans would finish 8-9, but Tennessee holds the tiebreaker.

We doubt that Doug Pederson is going to celebrate that fact to his players this week, but it has to be in the back of their minds, no? This is a preseason game in everything but name. What reason do the Jags have to risk anything, either injury or even opening up their playbook to the Titans? Tennessee coach Mike Vrable had no shame in his approach to Week 17, sitting starters and saving his big guns like Derrick Henry for the game that really counts next week.

Meanwhile, at 2-12-1, the Texans are in line for the first overall pick, but do not think these 52 guys that dress for them are going to be concerned about the future of Bryce Young, Will Anderson, Jalen Carter, Bijan Robinson or even C.J. Stroud. If you're Davis Mills, you’ve got two more weeks to convince the Texans brass that another QB like Young or Stroud is not needed. For the rest of the young Texans, they are playing for their futures. Lovie Smith is a coach that likes a particular style of player. One that will play hard and not quit. It’s in these games you find those diamonds in the rough. The most likely scenario here is that the Jags will bring their C game here, thus allowing the Texans to get win number three.

Our Pick

Houston +3½ -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)