Posted Saturday, December 2 at 2:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

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NFL Week 13

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’re intent on providing our We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, December 3

NFL Week 13

N.Y. Jets @ Minnesota Vikings -3 +101

1:00 PM EST. In Week 12, in a high profile “Game of the Week” in the late afternoon slate that was broadcast to the entire continent, the then 8-1 Vikes were a popular pick against the Cowboys as a home pooch (+1½). You might remember that CBS cut away from Jim and Tony before its conclusion, as the Vikings were down 37-3. That is not a good look and it’s been a talking point for two weeks. Still, the Vikings were a massively popular pick when they were hosting the Patriots on Thanksgiving Thursday, where they did win and cover in the late window but easy it was not. Whether Minnesota’s stock is up or down is not the focus here. You see, there is a new flavor of the week and his name is Mike White.

We present the front page of one of our favorite websites—Football Outsiders.

They say if you can make it in New York (or in this case, Jersey) you can make it anywhere. When you perform well for a team that is as starved for a winning season as the Jets, the media will strap a rocket to your back and push you to the moon. If you fail, they’ll bury you deeper than Jimmy Hoffa (allegedly). Just ask Geno Smith, who was exiled and sent into witness protection before resurfacing in the Pacific Northwest. How about Sam Darnold? Dude had to go into hiding in the Carolinas. Zach Wilson? Buddy boy, you’re next. Start looking for an exit ramp off the Jersey turnpike and never look back. There is no home for you here.

Is White significantly better than Wilson? Maybe. Did he benefit greatly from the situation he was placed in last Sunday afternoon? Undoubtedly. The Bears, minus Justin Fields, could not move the ball five yards. Chicago’s depleted defense was gassed on a wet field, which made for more than enough blunders that the Jets’ were able to capitalize on. Wide receivers were open because DBs were on their asses like they were on a Slip ‘N’ Slide. Perhaps we’ll leave the summary of White’s day to the experts at Football Outsiders, who said, “Despite the box score, White was merely ordinary. But ordinary looked awesome after witnessing Wilson's extraordinary ineptitude.” We couldn’t have said it better ourselves.

The Vikes were a 2½-point favorite last week against the Pats and now they are a similar price this week against the Jets. The question is, is that right? For some perspective, let’s look at the last few Jets’ games this season. At New England two weeks ago, Gang Green was a 3½-point pooch. At home to Buffalo in Week 9, the Jets were an 11-point underdog, in Week 8 v New England, they were a 3-point pooch. In Green Bay in Week 6, the Jets were taking back 7½-points. In just six games, we can easily see how the Jets’ stock has risen. Mike White might be the new king of New York, but we’re not ready to crown his ass just yet, therefore, this choice is all about selling high on Mike White. Recommendation: Minnesota -3

N.Y. Giants +2½ over Washington

1:00 PM EST. The last time the Commanders failed to cash a ticket was way back on October 9th, eight games ago, where, as a 3-point pooch, they lost by four. The ironic part of that is that it was a game they should’ve easily covered in but every bounce went against them. Ever since, the Commanders have gotten every single bounce their way and then some.  The Commanders are gaining market credibility more and more each week after first stopping the Philadelphia Eagles’ perfect season in Week 10 and then clawing above .500 with a 23-10 victory over the hapless Houston Texans two weeks ago. This past Sunday, the Football Team was a -3½ point fav over Atlanta, got every bounce x 10 and covered again. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke is getting a lot of the credit, but it’s the defense that is sparking the surge. Since Heinicke took over for the injured Carson Wentz in Week 7, the defense has held opponents to seven fewer points per game than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia. Before that, the defense was saving just 1.1 points per game, on average.

Meanwhile, the Giants had an extremely lucky back-door cover against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Thursday. They were down large and never looked worthy of a wager the entire afternoon. The week prior, New York got steamrolled by the Lions. That’s a sentence you hear about once every decade. The New York Football Giants have one win in its past four games, which occurred against the Houston Texans (24-16). The Texans should have scored 30 that day because they had numerous red zone opportunities but blew them. The Giants past two victories have occurred against the Jags and Texans. That’s it. Jags and Texans, two teams that are a combined 5-16 this year and about 10-150 over the past decade or something like that.

Despite Washington covering every week and the Giants looking worse with each passing week, oddsmakers made the Commanders less than a FG here. You had better think about that before you pull the trigger on one of the hottest teams in the league and THE hottest team in the league against the spread.

We’ve all heard the term “bend but don’t break” defense. It’s cute but what it really means is that the team has a fu**ing horseshoe up its ass. Over at Football Outsiders, Washington ranks 17th in Weighted  DVOA, which represents how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games. The teams they are on par with are Detroit, Jacksonville, Atlanta and Green Bay and we promise you that quartet is not covering every week like the Commanders are.

Trust us when we suggest we’re hot high on the Giants but isn’t that the point? Nobody is because it’s difficult to trust them. However, we have to set aside all that because this business is all about finding a side that checks more boxes than the other. Washington checks zero boxes while the Giants check ‘em all.

Home dog in division game - check

Dog friendly number at home +2½ - check

Stock low - check

Washington’s stock high - check

Opposition covering for weeks - check. 

Poor showing in a nationally televised game (Giants loss to Dallas) - check. 

Entire world will be on one side - check. Recommendation: New York Giants +2½

Kansas City @ Cincinnati +2½

4:25 PM EST. You are going to hear and read about how the Chiefs are out for “revenge” this week against the Bengals, but we are begging you, please don’t buy into that lazy, bullshit narrative. The revenge angle is an old and tired angle that is used by scumbag pick sellers and pundits alike. It’s akin to low hanging fruit. We’re going to show you some examples of it being used—

Take a close look at that last one. The Chiefs were supposedly looking for revenge in the AFC Championship game last January. How did that work out? This is a prime example of what we are talking about when we say the “revenge” angle is lazy. It’s always lying around when you need it and it takes zero thought to implement. Even if Patrick Mahomes throws for 500 yards and six touchdowns, we doubt a Week 13 win is going to make up for whatever emptiness that comes from losing a ticket to the Super Bowl.

Don’t look now but the battered and bruised Bengals are making a mid-season surge despite being down two of their three top offensive players after a 20-16 win and cover in Tennessee as a very small underdog last Sunday. Rarely do we like to discuss injuries, but when a team is down both Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon, it’s kind of hard to ignore. Chase was limited in practice last week, but all signs point to him making his return after missing a month of action. As for Mixon, his status is much more foggy, as he is still in the league’s concussion protocol. Mixon left Cincy’s win over Pittsburgh in Week 12 after getting his bell rung. In his place, Samaje Perine and Trayveon Williams filled in admirably, as the Bengals' strong rushing attack barely missed a beat. Next man up as we say.

The underlying numbers love the Bengals in their current form, as Cincy has surged to a top six ranking in Weighted DVOA over at Football Outsiders. Weighted DVOA puts more emphasis on games played more recently than one earlier in the season, which is the way it should be. Sure, the Bengals struggled in September, but so what. They aren’t struggling now, despite being bitten by the injury bug. The offense is fourth in Weighted DVOA, which is even more impressive when you consider Cincy has been down Chase for the last four games. He last suited up in Week 7 vs Atlanta. The Bengals receivers run deep and their QB is great. Joe Burrow is now top 10 in DYAR, with a +595, which ranks him higher than the likes of Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott. Cincy is built for December. This is a team that nobody is going to want a piece of down the stretch. Recommendation: Cincinnati +2½

Green Bay @ Chicago +3

1:00 PM EST. The status of the two quarterbacks in this game are what is top of mind here in this game. Justin Fields missed last Sunday’s 31-10 waffling in the swamp against the Jets, while Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the Packers seven point loss in Philadelphia in the third quarter with a rib injury. Joe Rogan Jr. already had a broken thumb on his throwing hand, which he had  been keeping secret. It’s funny now he finally let it slip in advance of last week’s  game when it was convenient for him once the heat in the kitchen was a little too much.

After Rodgers left that game Sunday night, backup Jordan Love stepped right in and played pretty damn good considering that the other #12 hasn’t acknowledged his existence in nearly three seasons. There are reports this week that even if Rodgers insists he’s ready to play, the Packers may bench him in favor of Love. We don’t believe that history is destined to repeat itself, but it hella rhymes sometimes. To quote the great, but uber underrated Aaron Eckhart from his role of Harvey Dent/Two Face in The Dark Knight, “You either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain.”

It doesn't look like the Packers are quite ready to revoke access to Lambeau Field to Rodgers like they did Brett Favre back in the day, but y’all, does it not feel like we’re closer to that than ever before? If we had to guess, we’d say that Rodgers starts this game, but whether or not he finishes it remains to be seen. The man’s ego and his salary are both so big that going out on anything other than his sword would be unacceptable to either side. It also lets both off the hook for the tough decision that needs to be made. Say what you want about Mike McCarthy, but at least he had the cojones to tell Brett Favre to frig off and backed it up with a locksmith.

All of this who is and who isn’t going to play is just smoke and mirrors because the books have posted a line on this game. That says to us, they don’t give a shit who is going to start between two clubs that are going nowhere. If we could take our pick, we hope Rodgers starts and Fields doesn't, because there will be an overreaction to that scenario. However, we also know that if Rodgers is out and Fields is in, there will be an overreaction to that. We’ll continue to monitor the situation, but if we were forced to pick today, we’d take the Bears and the points. Recommendation: Chicago +3

Tennessee +4½ @ Philadelphia

1:00 PM EST. The Eagles are coming off a 40-33 win and cover over the Packers on Sunday Night Football, but nobody is talking about last week. That’s because Philadelphia WR A.J. Brown has not stopped talking about himself, his time in Tennessee, and his beef with Titans’ fans in advance of this game. It would be easy for Brown to take the high road in this spot. He got paid, and he’s on a Super Bowl contender that leads the league at 10-1.

They say money doesn’t buy happiness, and perhaps Brown is feeling this. Once you make the big bucks, the buzzards start to swirl. If he was so happy in Philly, and everything was so great, why punch down? Why engage with fans that will never see that kind of money to play a kid's game? Brown has made it a habit to play the “villain” on Twitter, “trolling” his old team from time to time. This professional doesn’t have anything better to do? If Brown is this much of an asshole unnecessarily in public, just imagine how insufferable he must have been behind the scenes.

Everything's coming up A.J., he’s even said as much, “Me personally, I feel like I won. I say that because I changed my family’s life forever. That’s the goal, especially growing up where I’m from.” Remember, it was Brown who forced a trade from Tennessee and signed a four-year contract extension in Philly—$40 million of which was paid upfront with another $ 17 million guaranteed still to come. Why is he punching down?

To summarize, why say anything when nothing will do? Brown has provided more locker room fodder than one could possibly use. The Titans know this guy inside and out. Coach Mike Vrable knows what makes him tick. We cannot predict the outcome of this game, but we are confident that if one player is shut down by the Titans this week, it’s A.J. Brown.

This game has many moving parts that will provide much fodder for the pundits and pick sellers alike, but we’re not going to focus anymore on the drama. What matters most is what happens at the pay window. To that point, the Titans were one of Vegas' biggest liabilities last weekend. Tennessee took money six ways from Sunday, but failed to come through for their many backers in a 20-16 home loss to the undermanned Bengals.

The injury chasers in the market that were looking to take advantage of both Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase being out for Cincinnati were burned in that game. It was the second week in a row the Titans burned the market, as the market had faded Tennessee in Green Bay on Thursday Night Football in Week 11. Unless our read on the market is off, there is going to be a temptation to “zig-zag” again and fade the Titans here, but that would be the wrong move. It’s the Titans or nothing here. Recommendation: Tennessee +4½

Miami @ San Francisco -3½

4:05 PM EST. The Dolphins are back to their early season form after winning their fifth game in a row in a 30-15 upending of Houston last Sunday. The Fish’s stock is soaring again, as they are now 8-3 and pushing for first place in the AFC East. As impressive as Miami’s run has been, it does not take long to poke holes in its résumé.

During this run of wins, the Fish have feasted on the fat. In fact, the Dolphins have not beaten a team with a winning record since Week 2 when they knocked off Buffalo in an extremely lucky victory. That would include wins over the Steelers, Lions, Bears, Browns and Texans. Those five teams have a combined 16-39-1 record this season, so let’s settle down before we start planning any parades. While Miami has played some weak competition of late, that is about to change. According to Football Outsiders, the Fish play the second most difficult schedule the rest of the way. Shit is about to get real.

The injury chasers are circling the 49ers fade here, as they had some key personal miss practice this week including Christian McCaffrey, but as of this writing, “Caff” says he feels “great” and he plans to play. Even if McCaffrey comes up limp and is scratched on Sunday, we couldn’t care less. The ‘Niners will be without his running mate Elijah Mitchell who will miss up to eight weeks after spraining his MCL in that ugly 13-0 win over New Orleans last Sunday. WR Deebo Samuel also missed practice, which has downgraded his status to doubtful. If Samuel can’t go, there will be an overreaction to his absence that we can take advantage of.

The other big story this week outside of the 49ers' injuries is the return to Santa Clara for Miami coach Mike McDaniel, who was offensive coordinator for the ‘Niners last season. There does not seem to be much animosity from either coach, as both are saying the right things this week. If you hear something different from the talking heads, ignore that noise and move on.

What is really interesting is how McDaniel is approaching this week and next, as the Dolphins will now play on Sunday Night Football in Week 14 after having their game against the Chargers “flexed” out of its original late afternoon start. NBC has the option to switch to a more desirable game late in the season, which just shows you how hot of a commodity the Dolphins are right now. McDaniel has decided his team will stay in California for the week in advance of that game against the Chargers. Sounds like he’s looking ahead some, no?

If you bet San Francisco/New Orleans last week, you very likely want nothing to do with spotting points with the 49ers this week. San Fran’s cover last week against New Orleans was perhaps the most misleading cover in five years. It’s actually incredible that San Francisco covered but man, is it ever difficult to come right back on them spotting points to a perceived contender.

We’ll close by talking about this number, as it tells us all we need to know. When the oddsmakers throw up the “hook” on a “key number” like 3, 7, or 10 they are enticing the market to bet on the underdog. In this case, it’s the red hot Dolphins. That’s a big red flag. There is a perception in the market that you are getting an “edge” when you take back a price that crosses those key numbers, but that could not be further from the truth. The 49ers are the prudent choice. Recommendation: San Francisco -3½

Seattle @ L.A. Rams +7

4:25 PM EST. Stick a fork in the Rams, they are done. At 3-8, it’s a lost season for the defending Super Bowl champs. Los Angeles has been battered and bruised this season, suffering major injuries on both sides of the ball. We’ll go down the list of players expected to miss this game just to emphasize the star power that has been lost. QB Matthew Stafford is still in concussion protocol. WRs Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson are both out Offensive lineman Oday Aboushi missed practice with an illness, while his OL brothers, Ty Nsekhe and Brian Allen were both limited. RB Cam Akers is still out. Joining them is star DE Aaron Donald, who will not play after suffering an ankle injury. There’s more, but we figure you get the point. Cue the injury chasers.

The Seahawks are market darlings and have been for weeks. Although Seattle has failed to win or cover in their last two games, we suspect that will not change here, as the Rams look like an easy target. Maybe if the ‘Hawks were playing a team that didn’t appear to be in shambles the market might switch gears. As it stands, this is going to look like a bargain, as the Rams were a 16½-point pooch in Kansas City last week. Now you can fade them for half that price, which is suspicious as hell.

We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention that Seattle is still in the thick of it in the NFC West, as it is just a game back on San Francisco for tops in the division. This is noteworthy because there is a perception that the Seahawks “have something to play for,” while the Rams do not. If we know anything about misery, it’s that it loves company. If the Rams can drag anyone down with them, especially a division foe, they are going to take it.

Perhaps the Seahawks win and cover easily here, or perhaps Seattle is the sucker bet of the season. We suspect that oddsmakers could have made the ‘Hawks a double-digit favorite here and not swayed a bet. There is no chance that Matthew Stafford is going to surprise everyone and start this game. Rams coach Sean McVay already said it was “Safe to say” he wouldn’t. That leaves either John Wolford (who has an injured neck) or Bryce Perkins to get the nod. Moreover, there are no reinforcement coming for the Rams.

We’ll finish where we began, the market perception is that the Rams are toast. However, NFL players are not the type to roll over and die. You can’t get to this level with that mindset. These guys are playing for jobs not only with the Rams but potentially with other teams as well. Nobody wants to go into a negotiation and have the first statement be, “So tell us what happened in L.A., It looks like you guys quit out there late in the season.” This is a next-man-up league. There will be Rams that will be uber-motivated to make a play and prove they belong. Los Angeles is playing with house money here, which makes it very dangerous. You’ve been warned. Recommendation: L.A. Rams +7

Indianapolis +10 @ Dallas

8:20 PM EST. We’re not going to crap on the Cowboys. They are a great team that is playing well right now, but that is not the name of this game. The name of the game is “Are These Points Inflated?” The Cowboys have been favored in this range twice this season. The first time was in a 49-29 win over the Bears in Week 8. The other was on Thanksgiving against the Giants, where they failed to cover in a 28-20 win. 

Those games are two prime reasons why the final score can be deceiving, as the Cowboys got every break in the book against the Bears and that final flattered Dallas greatly. On Turkey Day, everyone saw the Giants pop in the backdoor with eight seconds to play. The ‘Boys did not lose any luster in that game. In fact, they may have seen their stock rise some with such a large audience watching them dominate a then 7-3 Giants side. The Cowboys might be the hottest team in the market at the moment. That comes with a premium. 

This is not the most competitive Sunday night game on paper, but that works to our advantage. Perhaps you’ve heard of a dance called The Ickey Shuffle. Well, we’d like to tell you about “The Ziggy Shuffle.” It’s when the market backs a team, gets burned, and then “zig-zags” to the other side. In this case, it is the Colts who are leading that two-step, as they were a big liability for the books on Monday Night Football.

We know that those stand-alone prime-time games get the most eyes and the most wagers, so when the Colts lost to the Steelers outright, 24-17, as a 2½-point favorite they did some damage in the market. This line is a significant swing from one game to the next. For some further perspective of just how inflated this price is, the Colts were just a 6½-point pooch to 9-2 Philadelphia just two weeks ago. Indianapolis now moves from the role of the chalk to one they are much better suited—the underdog. More specifically, a double-digit dog. Recommendation: Indianapolis +10