Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.
Philadelphia -11 over Washington
8:15 PM EST. The Eagles are 8-0, which is great for the organization, the fans and the local papers. However, in this market, 8-0 in the standings doesn’t mean much if you don’t back it up at the pay window. To that point, the Eagles are 5-3 against the spread. That includes a failure to cover last time out in a high profile prime time game at Houston to kick off Week 8.
The market has a short memory, and so that failure to cash as a double digit favorite against the Texans is going to resonate. However, it’s worth noting that the Eagles did win and cover easily against the Steelers in Week 7 and they also knocked off the Cowboys by nine as a 6½-point favorite in Week 6.
By contrast, the Commanders have treated their backers very well as of late, which is why they have some curb appeal tonight. Washington has gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last four. That run includes outright wins over the Bears and Packers. When a team starts to pay out consistently, it becomes easier to trust. When you back a team that is paying out consistently, you are paying a premium to do so.
Nobody wants to be late to the party, but if you bet the former Football Team tonight, you are showing up late to that party. This might look like an incredible pile of points for the Commanders to be talking back based on their recent results, but that’s the point. Washington is on its best run of the season (3-1), and it’s paying out. Yet, the oddsmakers had no problem hanging their largest spread of the season on the ‘Manders. Again, we ask, “why?”.
Prior to their current run of success, the Commanders were 1-4, with their only victory coming at home against the Jaguars in Week 1. That was the only game they covered through the first five weeks, by the way. After that, Washington lost to Detroit (36-27), Eagles (24-8), Dallas (25-10) and Tennessee (21-17). Sure, those losses were with Carson Wentz at the helm, but anyone who thinks Taylor Heineke is the answer to the privet position in D.C. is f**king delusional. We’re not going to make a case for Wentz, dude is terrible, too.
We couldn't help ourselves, so we had to look it up, and yes, both Wentz and Heinke sport a negative DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement). It’s one of our favorite quarterback stats and it's pretty simple to break down. Any yardage number above zero and you have a pivot that is better than your average run of the mill QB. The higher the positive number, the more valuable a QB is to this team. If a pivot’s number is negative, it's a sign that a team can do better. In this case, that time is the Commanders, and they could do better.
Laying the heavy lumber like this is not usually in our wheelhouse, but there are exceptions to every rule. Underdogs are not the only squads that bring value to the table. Finding a short priced favorite is just as rewarding as it is picking a live pooch that is taking back inflated points. Those short priced favorites pay out the same, too. Swallow the points.
Philadelphia -11 -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)