Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:45 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Kansas City -12½ over Tennessee
8:20 PM EST. Every week, there is a line or two that makes you go “hmmmmmm.” Well, in Week 9, this double digit spread on Sunday Night Football takes the cake. The Titans, last year’s #1 seed in the AFC and a team that is on a run of five wins and covers are priced like they are the New York Jets. Seriously, how can that be? The Jets are considered frauds, paper tigers, lucky as fuck, but the Titans? Nobody is using words like that to describe the Titans. Well, almost nobody, except us.
We’ve been calling out Tennessee all season, and we are not going to stop now. This team may be paying out like a broken slot machine, but we are still not buying in. The Titans could easily be 0-7. Every one of Tennessee’s wins has come by seven points or less, including that 17-10 final in Houston last Sunday. Prior to that, the Titans couldn’t score an offensive touchdown against the Colts. They were outgained by Indianapolis in Week 7 (-38), just as they were in games against Washington (-144), Indy again (-122), and Las Vegas (-35). The Titans won those four games by a combined 22 points. There has not been a luckier team in the AFC this season, the Jets included.
The deeper one dives, the easier it’s going to be to digest this price. A quick stop to Football Outsiders shows us that the Chiefs are indeed elite. They rank fifth in total team DVOA, including the #1 ranked offense by that metric. By contrast, the Titans are way down at 19. Not very elite. For some perspective, those “lucky” and “fraudulent” Jets are ranked at 11. 11! Do you think anyone would favor the Jets over the Titans anywhere in this solar system? Yeah, us either. The point is, market perception is reality.
We will never stop preaching that wins and losses are what the market and media values most. The Titans have played one, count it, one elite team this season when it traveled to Buffalo in Week 2. The Titans were handed their asses, 41-7. The Titans could only muster 12 first downs, 187 total yards and one trip to the red zone. If they get any more than that off the Chiefs, we’ll eat our hats.
We could slobber over the Chiefs further, but we’ll save the saliva. Instead, we’ll summarize. The Titans are garbage and must be faded here and everywhere. This price says they cannot compete and the oddsmakers got it right.
Finally, we'd be remiss if we didn't mention the Titans QB situation, so here is the latest from ESPN's Adam Schefter this morning:
Titans have closely guarded their quarterback plans for Sunday night and are hoping not to reveal them until pre-game warmups. QB Ryan Tannehill is listed as questionable due to an ankle injury, and was spotted in a walking boot over a week ago, with a possible high-ankle sprain.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 6, 2022
Frankly, we couldn't care less if it's Tannehill or the kid. Buffalo beat Tennessee 41-7 and K.C. will come close to repeating that.
Kansas City -12½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)