Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 9:30 AM EST odds are subject to change.
New Orleans +1½ @ Las Vegas
1:00 PM EST. The last time we saw the Saints, they were getting run off the field in Arizona on Thursday Night Football in the opening game of the Week 7 slate. Giving up 44-points in a season where scoring is down is not a good look, however, the Saints were their own worst enemies on TNF. New Orleans was going stride for stride with the Cards as the half approached. It was 14-14 and the Saints had the ball with a chance to put some more points on the board before the break. Instead, Andy Dalton threw not one, but two interceptions for touchdowns in the final two minutes of the first half. Instead of going in tied or even up, the Saints were down 28-14.
It wasn’t all bad for New Orleans, as its offense outgained the Cards by 168 yards. The Saints also had more first downs and were very close in time of possession. The box score did not support the final score. However, as usual, turnovers were the name of the game. New Orleans lost that battle (-3), with those two touchdowns at the end of the first half setting the tone for the rest of the game.
The Raiders were big winners in Week 7, frog stomping the Texans 38-20 at home in Vegas. The Raiders were the third highest scoring team of the week, but do not be fooled by that box score. A closer look shows that it was a ball game until the fourth quarter, as the Texans actually led, 20-17, with 15 minutes to play. Vegas would score three touchdowns in the final frame to close out the game. The Texans did themselves no favors, as they imploded on the road, but that lopsided final had more to do with the costly mistakes Houston made late than it did with the Raiders running roughshod. The Raiders struggled for most of the game, but then scored 21 fourth quarter points. That run was capped by a 73-yard interception return TD, further padding the final score.
The Raiders were -7 over the Texans last Sunday and now they are just better than a coin flip against the Saints when New Orleans stock is low. That looks like low-hanging fruit. This line is very telling, as the oddsmakers are giving the Saints a ton of respect at home despite recent results. They are begging the market to dip their toes in and snap up the Raiders at what looks like a discount. When we look at the entire picture, we see a Raiders’ team with two wins, one over Denver in a game they allowed the toothless Broncs to score 23 points and one last week over Houston. The Raiders beat Houston and Demver and now they’re road chalk because why?
New Orleans +110 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)