Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Stream: ABC

Miami -14 over Duke

12:00 PM EST. The books are dangling the proverbial carrot under your nose, and this is the trap. Look at the bait. Duke is 7-2 against the spread, Duke's defense is first in the ACC in passing yards allowed at 186.6 a game, the Blue Devils have not allowed a touchdown in 11 quarters, and Miami is without its star receiver. Everyone sees two touchdowns with a good team and wants to bite. That is exactly what the books want. They opened this at 14.5 and let the public money drag it down to 14, and they are happy to keep taking Duke money all morning. Do not bite.

Here is what the carrot is hiding. Duke has four offensive linemen out and three wide receivers out, and quarterback Terry Walker III is questionable. A team cannot score enough to stay within two touchdowns when it cannot block and cannot throw, and Duke's offence was already second-rate next to Miami's: 425.1 total yards a game, 33rd in the country, against a Miami offence putting up 516.6 a game, fourth in the country. Duke's defense is real, but a defence cannot win a game by itself when the offence cannot stay on the field. Miami's front seven is going to live in Duke's backfield all afternoon.

Miami is 8-1, 6-0 in ACC play, ranked seventh, at home, with everything on the line. Quarterback Darian Mensah and receiver Cooper Barkate are facing their former program, and Manny Diaz is walking back into Hard Rock Stadium as the opposing coach, so the Hurricanes have every reason to make a statement. The Canes are 6-3 against the spread this season, and they win at home by putting teams away, not by hanging on. Duke keeps it close for a quarter, maybe two, and then the talent gap and the battered offensive line take over.

Sportsinteraction