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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI

Stream: Peacock

Michigan State +14½ -110 over Michigan

7:30 PM EST. There was a time when Michigan laying two touchdowns at home against Michigan State wouldn't have raised an eyebrow. Those days are long gone, but apparently nobody told the oddsmakers. Michigan continues to command a premium simply because it's Michigan, despite an offense that has spent much of the season struggling to reach 20 points. The Wolverines have become one of the more overpriced programs in college football, with their reputation carrying considerably more weight than their actual performance. Michigan State isn't exactly setting the world on fire either, but there's a significant difference between being an ordinary football team and being asked to lay two touchdowns with one.

The offensive numbers tell a rather unflattering story for Michigan. The Wolverines managed 17 against Oklahoma, 19 against Iowa, 14 against Minnesota, 21 against Penn State, and a miserable six against Indiana. Even that 17-point performance against Oklahoma included a defensive touchdown. Bryce Underwood arrived in Ann Arbor with enormous expectations and an NIL investment that could probably fund a small university, but the return has been disappointing. The Wolverines haven't demonstrated the offensive consistency required to justify this sort of price, particularly against a conference rival that knows them well. Michigan can control stretches of a game defensively, but asking its offense to create significant separation is an entirely different proposition.

The scheduling situation makes Michigan State even more appealing. The Spartans are coming off a bye week, giving Pat Fitzgerald two full weeks to prepare for his first meeting with Michigan. Meanwhile, the Wolverines were on the road at Rutgers last week and have a much bigger national attraction against Oregon waiting next week. That's a classic sandwich situation, and while the rivalry ensures Michigan won't completely overlook its in-state opponent, the circumstances certainly favor the rested underdog. Fitzgerald also understands the importance of establishing himself in this rivalry, and there's no better opportunity to make an early statement than against a vulnerable Michigan team carrying an inflated price.

The market continues to treat Michigan like a national powerhouse when its performances suggest something considerably less impressive. Strip away the helmets, the history, the enormous stadium, and the recruiting rankings, and there's very little separating these programs that warrants a two-touchdown spread. Michigan State has had extra preparation time, catches the Wolverines between two conference road and home assignments, and faces an offense that has repeatedly struggled to produce points. The Spartans are perfectly capable of winning this game outright, and the generous 14-point head start makes the proposition even more attractive. Michigan's name still carries plenty of weight. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, that name doesn't score touchdowns.

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