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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Flagler Credit Union Stadium, Boca Raton, FL

Stream: ESPN

Florida Atlantic +6½ +100 over UTSA

7:30 PM EST. Thursday night in Boca Raton, a total of 72.5, and two defenses that couldn't stop a shopping cart rolling downhill, this is not a game, it's a track meet with goalposts. UTSA rolls in at 7-1 atop the American and gets installed as a 6.5-point road favourite, and fair enough, but look at the building they're walking into: Florida Atlantic is 4-0 at home this season, scores 37.8 points a game, and hangs 11.3 points in the first quarter alone, fourth-best in the country. The Owls don't ease into games, they kick the door in. In a spot where the favourite has to outrun a home team that starts fast and never stops throwing, laying nearly a touchdown is a miserable way to make a living.

The reason is Caden Veltkamp, who is quietly running one of the loudest offences in America. The kid completes 71.8% of his passes for 2,536 yards with 23 touchdowns against five interceptions, leads the nation at 28.4 completions a game, and just hung 452 yards and five touchdowns on North Texas last week in a 48-41 loss that told you everything: FAU's offence can trade with anybody. His favourite toy, Easton Messer, leads the entire country with 74 catches for 898 yards and nine scores , 16 grabs, 189 yards and three touchdowns last week alone — and with Kelby Valsin on the other side, they're the only receiving duo in the nation both ranked top-10 in catches per game. UTSA's defense gives up yards by the truckload, and its quarterback, Owen McCown, is a perfectly respectable game manager (69.5%, 1,751 yards, 10 touchdowns) who threw two picks and no touchdowns last game. In a shootout, you take the gunslinger over the caretaker every single time, especially getting points.

The Owls' defense is a crime scene, 468.9 yards and 35.8 points allowed a game, ranked near the bottom of the country against the run — and UTSA will feed Will Henderson III (664 yards) and A'Marion Peterson (11 touchdowns) straight into that wound all night. The Roadrunners have also won five straight and haven't played since October 24, while FAU was in a war last Thursday. All true. But here's the thing about a game priced at 72.5: nobody's defense is getting the last word, the possessions just keep coming, and +6.5 in a score-trading contest is alive on every single drive, including the ugly backdoor kind. UTSA may well leave Boca with a win and its perfect conference record. It is not leaving with a comfortable one.

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