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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA

Streaming: FOX

Wisconsin +118 over Iowa

12:00 PM EST. The market still prices this like the last few years, when Iowa bullied Wisconsin. But look at the Iowa team actually taking the field today: fresh off a last-second loss at Minnesota that knocked them out of the playoff picture, their top running back done for the rest of the regular season, and Kirk Ferentz spinning the quarterback wheel one more time. Hank Brown is back in the starting slot after Jeremy Hecklinski had the job, and Ferentz has reserved the right to change his mind as often as he wants. The two of them combined to throw three interceptions last week. And the market still wants you to lay a price with that team? We will take the plus money with the dog instead.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin walks in with the exact opposite energy. Luke Fickell's seat was warm not long ago, and then the Badgers went out last week and physically handled USC, holding the Trojans to seven points and pushing them around up front. For the first time in a few years, Wisconsin can match the physical play Iowa is known for. A ranked Badger team, playing with confidence, with a coach whose job just got a whole lot safer, walking into Kinnick as a live underdog at plus money. The value is all on the Wisconsin side of this price.

Then there is the shape of the game itself. Trophy game, two stingy defenses, and everything about it smells like a last-second field goal winning it or forcing overtime. In a coin-flip game, you take the plus money every single time. Iowa wins games like this late. That is their whole identity. But at +118, we do not need Wisconsin to dominate anybody. We need the Badgers to win one close game, and everything about this matchup says close.

And the prize is a 72-pound brass pig, which is a wonderfully absurd thing to play for in a rivalry that dates back to 1894, especially since the pig itself has only existed since 2004. Iowa plays so many trophy games they probably need a spreadsheet to keep track of them all. Wisconsin has not brought this particular pig home since 2021. Today they do.

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