Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Acrisure Bounce House, Orlando, FL

Stream: ESPN

Baylor -1½ -108 over UCF

7:30 PM EST. Allow us to take you back two weeks. BYU was a 10½-point home underdog against Notre Dame, and the Cougars won the game outright. It was the biggest win in school history. The celebration went on all week, the players were heroes on campus, and then BYU had to travel to Central Florida as an 8-point favorite, an 18-point swing from the week before, and lost outright in double overtime. A week of being told how great you are is poison in this sport, and BYU drank all of it.

Now UCF is BYU. The Knights beat No. 2 BYU 39-31 in double overtime last week, the biggest win in school history, and the celebration has been going on ever since. These are kids, young football players on a college campus, and they have spent the entire week being heroes with their heads swelled. Six days later they have to turn around and host Baylor in what is pretty much a nothing game. UCF won its Super Bowl last Saturday. Tonight is the morning after, and nobody comes down from that in six days.

Meanwhile, Baylor is everything the market hates right now. Dave Aranda got fired after last week's loss at Kansas, first-year defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman is the interim head coach despite never having been one before, and the Bears have dropped two straight. That is why you are getting them at this price, and it is also why you should want them. Notice something else: even after the biggest win in UCF school history, the market still makes Baylor a favorite on the road in Orlando. The market is not buying UCF's new stock price either, and neither are we.

Letdown spots do not get much cleaner than this one. One team spent its entire emotional wad last Saturday and has been reading its own press clippings all week, and the other team is a desperate, embarrassed bunch with a new coach and nothing left to lose. We will take the team nobody wants at a price that only asks it to win by two.

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