Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change

Friday, 9:00 PM EST. Washington is 3-2, has dropped two straight games, and the enthusiasm surrounding Jedd Fisch's program is disappearing faster than the Huskies' playoff aspirations. A team that opened the season with considerable promise is now sitting at 0-2 in Big Ten play, and the critics are beginning to circle.

Meanwhile, Iowa continues to do what Iowa does best: play physical football, defend like its life depends on it, and make opposing offenses wish they'd taken up another sport.

The Hawkeyes have one of the nation's stingiest defenses, allowing just 12.6 points per game and surrendering a miserable 2.9 yards per rushing attempt. Phil Parker has built another outstanding unit, and there's little doubt Iowa will make life difficult for Washington quarterback Demond Williams.

That's the obvious argument for taking the Hawkeyes. And it's a pretty convincing one.

Washington's running game ranks an embarrassing 126th nationally, and the Huskies have become far too dependent on Williams to manufacture offense. The departure of Jonah Coleman has left a significant hole, and the offensive balance that once made Washington dangerous has largely disappeared.

Add consecutive losses to Minnesota and USC, and it's easy to understand why bettors have lost confidence in the Huskies.

But here's where things get interesting.

Washington lost those two games by a combined seven points. Seven! The Huskies haven't been getting destroyed. They've been losing competitive football games, and those narrow defeats have done considerable damage to their reputation.

Iowa, meanwhile, is receiving plenty of respect for its defense and its ability to compete with quality opponents. Even last week's loss to Ohio State hasn't diminished the Hawkeyes' appeal. Backup quarterback Jeremy Hecklinski showed some promise after Hank Brown suffered an injury, and Iowa's defense remains its greatest asset regardless of who's taking the snaps.

However, Brown's uncertain availability is no small consideration. Washington may have offensive problems, but Iowa isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut even when its starting quarterback is healthy.

This is another buy-low opportunity involving a home team whose stock has fallen after two disappointing results. Washington was considered a legitimate Big Ten contender a month ago. Now the Huskies are being treated like a team headed for a meaningless December bowl game.

That's a considerable change in perception for a team whose two losses have come by a field goal and four points.

The market has Washington favored by anywhere from two to three points, depending on the sportsbook. We're seeing some 2½s, including numbers with additional juice, but we're selling the extra half-point and taking Washington -3 at a reduced price.

That adjustment makes sense in a matchup featuring an Iowa team that traditionally prefers to turn football games into wrestling matches. There's little appeal in paying extra juice for a half-point when the cheaper number is available.

Iowa is the more fashionable selection right now. The Hawkeyes have the defense, the better recent reputation and the kind of physical identity that makes bettors comfortable taking points.

Washington has the disappointing record, the struggling running game and a fan base that's beginning to wonder what happened to all that preseason promise.

But two narrow losses haven't suddenly made the Huskies a bad football team, and the market is offering an opportunity to buy Washington after its stock has taken a beating.

Iowa is getting plenty of respect. Washington is getting very little.

We'll take the discounted Huskies at home and sell the half-point to improve the price.

Sportsinteraction