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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

Stream: ESPN

Temple +135 over Army

4:00 PM EST. There’s a pretty obvious story being sold here. Army is coming off a bye, Temple is coming off an excruciating 49-48 overtime loss at Toledo, and now the Owls have only six days to prepare for the Black Knights' option attack. Throw in Army winning the last four meetings and it's not difficult to understand why the market wants the Cadets. Army is currently laying roughly 3½ points with Temple around +130 on the moneyline.

We’re not buying the premise that Temple is walking into some impossible matchup. The Owls saw this offense last November and held Army to 14 points in a 14-13 loss at West Point. More importantly, Temple's weakness this season has been defending the pass, not the run. The Owls surrendered 429 passing yards to Toledo last week but just 107 rushing yards on 25 attempts. They also limited Penn State to 148 yards on 34 carries. Through three games, Temple opponents have rushed for only 352 yards on 89 attempts, while the Owls themselves have piled up 664 rushing yards.

The quarterback situation isn't nearly as troublesome as it might appear either. Jaxon Smolik injured his foot against Toledo, but Ajani Sheppard isn't some emergency backup being thrown into the fire. Sheppard is getting the start and all the first-team reps this week after replacing Smolik and completing 12 of 22 passes for 164 yards and three touchdowns while adding 66 rushing yards and another score against Toledo. Temple has also rushed for at least 176 yards in every game this season, including 261 at Toledo. This is an offense capable of shortening the game and matching Army's physicality.

Army's 1-1 record isn't exactly screaming powerhouse either. The Black Knights had South Florida beaten before blowing a 10-point lead in the final five minutes of a 28-24 loss. Now the market is asking us to pay a premium for Army because of the extra preparation time and Temple's ugly finish at Toledo. We'd rather buy the team whose stock just took the hit. Temple was one play away from leaving Toledo with a road victory, it already demonstrated last year that it can defend Army's offense, and the Owls' ability to run the football gives them a legitimate path to controlling this game. Forget the points. Temple outright.

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