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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Flagler Credit Union Stadium, Boca Raton, FL

Streaming:ESPN+

Florida International +6½ -110 over Florida Atlantic

7:00 PM EST. Ha ha ha ha. We were already interested in FIU, and then we started looking around and discovered plenty of tout services lining up to lay the points with Florida Atlantic. Beautiful. Apparently we're supposed to lay almost a touchdown because FAU has the more experienced quarterback, converts efficiently in the red zone and has played the tougher schedule. This is classic tout handicapping: assemble three statistics that support the favorite, completely ignore everything uncomfortable and confidently tell everyone to lay the points. The more people we see lining up to sell Florida Atlantic, the more we want FIU.

Here's the uncomfortable part that doesn't seem to make the sales pitch: Florida Atlantic can't stop anybody. The Owls have already allowed 96 points in two games, and this isn't some brand-new problem. Their defense has been getting lit up for months. Yet we're supposed to lay almost a touchdown because FAU's quarterback has experience? Wonderful. He may need every bit of that experience if his defense keeps handing touchdowns to the opposition like Costco samples. FAU can absolutely score. Nobody is disputing that. We're simply not interested in spotting 6½ points with a team that routinely turns Saturdays into track meets.

FIU isn't showing up here with a water pistol either. JJ Kohl just threw for 367 yards and three touchdowns without an interception against Buffalo, and the Panthers probably deserved better in their opener against South Florida than the final result suggests. So now we're getting nearly a touchdown with an offense that has demonstrated it can move the football against a defense that has demonstrated it can make almost anybody look dangerous. If you're laying 6½ with FAU, you're essentially betting that eventually its offense scores enough points to outrun whatever the defense sets on fire. That's not a wager. That's an insurance claim.

And that's really all this comes down to. FAU beat Navy, the offensive numbers look pretty and plenty of tout services are lining up to explain why laying the points is the smart play. Perfect. They can have it. Forget what happened in this rivalry three years ago, forget meaningless ATS trends and forget how many points the winning team has historically scored. We're dealing with these two teams, right now, and we're getting 6½ points against a favorite that has allowed 96 points in two games. The touts can have Florida Atlantic. We'll take the points and cheer for every defensive disaster.

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