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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC

Streaming: ACC Network

Duke -7½ -105 over Tulane

3:30 PM EST. There are certain numbers that scare bettors away from favorites, and -7½ is one of our favorites for precisely that reason. Everyone understands the significance of seven, so that extra half-point looks like a giant flashing warning sign telling you to take the dog. We see it differently. That hook can be nothing more than a carrot dangling in front of the market, inviting bettors to grab Tulane +7½ because losing by a touchdown still gets them to the cashier's window. If the oddsmakers wanted to make Duke easy to bet, they could have hung -6½ or -7. They didn't. We're not taking the bait. We're laying it.

There's also a significant perception problem here because Tulane's recent accomplishments are attached to a team that no longer exists. The Green Wave won the American and reached the playoff last season, but head coach Jon Sumrall is gone, along with most of that championship roster. Tulane returns only five starters and must replace nine of its 12 All-Conference selections. Will Hall was promoted to take over, and Zeon Chriss-Gremillion inherits the quarterback job, but this is a substantial reconstruction being priced under the Tulane name. Duke has quarterback turnover of its own after losing Darian Mensah, but Manny Diaz has already demonstrated an ability to successfully integrate transfer quarterbacks, and Walker Eget arrives from San Jose State with 18 career starts and 5,563 passing yards. He'll also have 1,100-yard rusher Nate Sheppard alongside him, something Eget rarely enjoyed out West.

Then there's last year's game. Tulane beat Duke 34-27 after jumping out to a 24-3 lead, but the Blue Devils still finished with a yardage advantage and nearly came all the way back. That loss hasn't disappeared in Durham. Tulane took down Duke, eventually grabbed a playoff berth that the Blue Devils badly wanted, and Manny Diaz publicly made the case that the ACC champion belonged in the playoff ahead of a Group-of-Five champion. Now Duke gets the Green Wave at home, except the quarterback who tortured them, Jake Retzlaff, is gone. The coach who beat them is gone. Much of the roster that beat them is gone. Duke gets the revenge opportunity against a considerably different Tulane team.

The computer projections and historical trends can suggest something closer, but we're willing to step outside those numbers here. Duke didn't accidentally win the ACC last year, and Diaz has had this program punching above its perceived weight since arriving in Durham. Meanwhile, the market is dangling that beautiful +7½ in front of anyone who wants to trust Tulane's name and recent résumé. They can have it. Sometimes the ugliest number on the favorite is exactly where we want to be. Seven and a hook doesn't scare us—it attracts us. Duke -7½.

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