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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Oregon +150 ML over Indiana

Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA

College Football Playoff at the Peach Bowl

7:30 PM ET. There is a strange disconnect surrounding this semifinal, and it is entirely rooted in perception rather than substance. Oregon enters this game checking nearly every box you want in a national championship contender: elite recruiting, roster depth, postseason experience, and a coaching staff that has already navigated these waters. Yet the Ducks are being treated as a footnote because the story belongs to Indiana.

That story is undeniable. The rise of the Indiana Hoosiers from long-time afterthought to national powerhouse has captured the imagination of the sport. A Heisman-winning quarterback who is as personable as he is talented, a culture-changing head coach, and a historic dismantling of Alabama in the Rose Bowl that has cultivated a sense of inevitability around Indiana’s march forward. But inevitability is rarely a profitable betting angle.

Lost in the noise is how well the Oregon Ducks are playing right now. The Ducks didn’t just survive the early rounds of the playoff — they dominated them. James Madison was overwhelmed in Eugene, and Texas Tech was blanked in a 23-0 shutout that showcased how suffocating Oregon’s defense can be when fully locked in. That version of Oregon looks nothing like a team that should be catching +150 against anyone.

Yes, Indiana won the regular-season meeting 34-24 in Eugene, but rematches are a different sport than conference games in November. Ole Miss proved that on New Year’s Day and yet Oregon is being treated as if it has no chance to do the same. History is full of examples where the loser recalibrated, and flipped the result when the stakes were highest. The market, however, is treating that prior result as definitive rather than contextual.

Oregon’s defensive front is playing its best football of the season, and Dan Lanning’s staff has proven capable of crafting game plans specifically designed to neutralize star quarterbacks. Oregon’s control of Demond Williams, Alonza Barnett III, and Barron Morton are a testimony to that as all three are electric, and yet the Ducks made them mere spark plugs.

This isn’t about who has the better story. Indiana does without question, its movie-like. This is about value. When a roster with Oregon’s talent profile, experience, and current form is offered at this price, you don’t overthink it. You take the Ducks and let the chips fall where they may. Market sentiment is leaning hard into the fairy tale, and that’s exactly when value appears on the other side. Ducks or nothing.

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