Pinnacle  -3.5 -110 BET365  -3.5 -110  Sportsinteraction  -3.5 -110  888Sport  -3.5 -110

Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Miami -3.5 -105 over Ole Miss

State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ

College Football Playoff at the Fiesta Bowl

7:30 PM ET. The question here is which team's stock is higher? Both parties have exceeded expectations in the playoff thus far and have staged some significant upsets. However, despite instinct and intuition pointing towards the Hurricanes who have done more damage, the market is more infatuated with the Rebels. Let's break this down.

The Hurricanes crept into the CFP, stealing the final at-large seed which forced them to run through a gauntlet as the #10 seed. The U had to go to College Station to square off with Texas A&M and the 12th Man, winning ugly in a 10-3 upset. But that wasn't as nearly as shocking as what Miami did next. The Canes marched onto the Cotton Bowl and up-ended the defending national champion Ohio State in a 10-point win spearheaded by an exemplary defensive display. The oddsmakers recognize what the Canes are bringing to the table and as result have installed them at a favorite-friendly number as result, despite being the lowest remaining seed in the bracket. That is very telling.

Ole Miss, meanwhile, cruised past Tulane in the First Round in Oxford and then did the unthinkable, they outgunned the Georgia Bulldogs in the fourth quarter and pulled an upset of the Dawgs with a fourth quarter rally despite trailing by nine at halftime while appearing completely out of sync. This result has clearly moved the needle more. The Dawgs by many accounts are the standard-bearer of the sport. UGA is the only team ever to go back-to-back in the history of the CFP and nearly completed a three-peat just two years ago. The Dawgs heading into the game were characterized as peaking at the right team and no one gave Ole Miss a chance. That’s key.

Ole Miss, who was abandoned by Lane Kiffin for LSU after the Egg Bowl and as a result, defensive coordinator Pete Golding was forced to step up into the big seat. Golding and a former D2 quarterback in Trinidad Chambliss are now a game away from playing for Ole Miss’ first potential title in 60 years after defeating college football’s best coach Kirby Smart and the team that is now the gold standard, according to many. This is a feel-good story for the hopeless romantics. Metaphorically, Ole Miss was dumped by an ex only to see things come together thereafter. With SEC bias also injected into perception along with betting hearts bestowed upon them, the Rebs have gotten a whole lot of love here but conveniently they were installed as the underdog with a field goal cushion. That’s the hook. The oddsmakers are dangling the bait and we are refusing to bite. Miami moves onto play for it all.

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