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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Mississippi State -3 over Wake Forest

Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC

Duke’s Mayo Bowl

8:00 PM ET. This matchup is a classic reminder that bowl games are priced on circumstance, motivation, and market reality — not just records on paper. At first glance, Wake Forest looks like the side most bettors will gravitate toward. The Demon Deacons finished 8–4, closed the regular season on a strong 6–2 run, and appeared to be trending upward while Mississippi State limped to the finish line at 5–7, losing seven of its final eight. Everything about the surface narrative suggests Wake is the “safer” choice. Yet despite those optics, Mississippi State is the team laying points.

That alone should demand attention. Books are not in the business of gifting favorites — especially not a 5–7 team whose bowl invite exists only because others declined. When a side with that résumé is still installed as chalk against an opponent with the cleaner record and better recent form, it signals intent. The number reflects expectation, not reputation, and the expectation here leans toward the Bulldogs showing up.

Bowl season also levels emotional footing. For Mississippi State, this is a redemption window. After a searing start to what ended in a disappointing season, this can be reframed with one strong closing performance, and historically, teams in that role often play looser, more physical, and more motivated. The Bulldogs’ for what it is worth have played bigger and badder than the Deacs anyhow – Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, Tennessee, and Arizona State to name a few. Three playoff teams, one team that just missed the playoff, and three more ranked foes on top of that. Who did Wake actually face comparatively speaking? They played in a conference whose conference champion didn’t even make the CFP. The gap between these teams isn’t as large as the records imply — and the line punctuates that.

When the market posts a favorite that looks “wrong” at first glance, it’s usually trying to tell us something. Here, it’s telling us Mississippi State is the side more likely to dictate terms and impose its will for four quarters. We trust that they will. 

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