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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Rice +18.5 over Texas State

Amon G. Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, TX

Armed Forces Bowl

1:00 PM ER. This is borderline insanity as we are presented with a number that is approaching record-breaking territory for point spreads in a bowl game. That in itself makes the Owls worth a look here. But we will go deeper.

Texas State is being priced like a team built to win by margin, but their fundamental makeup tells a very different story. The Bobcats thrive on offense, they are not a team that defends well and often leaves the defense at home. They surrender chunk plays, allow prolonged drives, and routinely invite opponents back into games. That’s not the DNA of a team suited to protect a large cushion for four quarters.

Rice finds itself miscast as little more than an afterthought because their bowl berth comes courtesy of circumstance rather than glamour. They were invited to participate in this game because many teams declined a bowl, thus the 5-7 Owls defaulted into Fort Worth. But that narrative ignores a crucial reality: the Owls have nothing to lose — and teams in that posture are dangerous. Motivation, looseness, and freedom to play aggressively often tilt bowl outcomes in favor of the supposed outsider. Rice isn’t stepping into this matchup with pressure or expectation; they’re stepping in with opportunity. Add in bloated points and that makes them that much more equitable.

More importantly, we are getting a medley of points against a Texas State defense that bends freely and breaks often. Sustained drives, red-zone efficiency, and the ability to trade possessions all work in Rice’s favor. They don’t need to dominate the game or shock the world — they simply need to avoid collapse to be in position to cash.

Texas State’s appeal is obvious. They score in bunches, they’re entertaining, and they carry stylistic swagger — traits that attract casual money. But bowl games are rarely decided by sizzle. They’re decided by composure, variance, and whether a favorite can actually justify its tax on the scoreboard. Asking a shootout-oriented team to win comfortably at this margin is asking them to perform outside their natural tendencies. Take the points with Rice.

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