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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Indiana -7 over Alabama

Rose Bowl – Pasadena, CA

College Football Playoff at the Rose Bowl

4:00 PM ET. Two years ago if we told you that Indiana would be laying a touchdown to Alabama, you probably would have asked if you were dreaming. But Curt Cignetti has done the unthinkable, positioning a program that was once the most losing one in the FBS before he arrived to a national title contender, Big Ten champion, and #1 team in the country. And hitherto, what many call the greatest program in the history of the sport is an underdog in the Rose Bowl against said side.

Alabama is a team of sentiment and narrative but this is not the Nick Saban iteration of Crimson Tide from yesteryear. Let's remove the name for a moment and look at what this team has done recently - they got smashed by Georgia in the SEC Championship, stayed in the playoff bracket not without controversy, and won their first round game on the road at Oklahoma after trailing by 17. But despite the stunning comeback, we have to annotate that the Sooners did everything they could do to not win that game. If they did, Alabama would be watching this one from home. Plain and simple.

However, when the market sees Alabama at a near two-to-one price outright, it can't help but dive in head first, and we've seen a lot of money line and parlay plays come in on the Tide accordingly because of the allure that accompanies the brand. But this is no oversight by the oddsmakers, it's a show of respect for the team that has earned the distinction as the best in the country, thus far. IU is the more balanced side, they have the better defense, better quarterback, better running backs, and better wide receivers. Yes and that’s even with Alabama’s subjective biases factored in.

The price tells us that this is Indiana's game to lose, not Alabama being offered as a late-Christmas gift. However, thanks to the market’s infatuation with Bama for the first time in a long time, the top seed in the CFP and favorite to win the whole enchilada is being offered up at a discount because the market remains bewitched by Alabama and its mythology. When that happens we go the other way. Hoosiers get it done.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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