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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Oregon -2 over Texas Tech

Hard Rock Stadium – Miami, FL

College Football Playoff at the Orange Bowl

12:00 PM ET. The Red Raiders enter this matchup as the best covering team in college football — a staggering 12–1 ATS — and they’re fresh off a wire-to-wire demolition of BYU in the Big 12 title game. Public perception has followed accordingly. Tech has become the darling of bettors and broadcasters alike, a team consistently framed as “undervalued” even though those that backed them were rewarded every step of the way. If anything, the Red Raiders are hot in the crosshairs of the oddsmakers because they are tired of handing out free money on Tech every week. And yet, despite being the higher seed in this match-up, they’re the underdog here. That’s the tell.

Oddsmakers are fully aware of Tech’s ATS dominance and the rhetoric to follow such as their undefeated mark with Behren Morton under center, and the talking-point streaks that pundits keep repeating such as Tech having no ATS losses versus Power Four opponents when Morton is running the offense, no close calls, just constant separation on the scoreboard. The authors of the line know all of that. Pricing them as a dog is intentional.

Meanwhile, Oregon walks in with less appeal even when they did what they were supposed to in the first round of the CFP. The Ducks controlled James Madison from wire-to-wire, but a meaningless late touchdown produced a back-door cover for the Dukes and a litany of ripped tickets on those flocking to Oregon. Bettors were left with a sour taste in their mouth and naturally, they will flock to the side that has always given them something sweet to chew on. That creates a discount on the Ducks and thus creates value.

This is classic underlay territory. A wildly profitable team on a heater becomes over-credited, while the superior roster is shaded downward because of one cosmetic ATS “loss.” If Texas Tech weren’t riding a dream season against the spread, this line would likely sit much closer to a touchdown. Instead, we’re laying under a field goal. Oregon or nothing — and at this price, it’s Oregon.

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