Pinnacle  +135   BET365   +135    Sportsinteraction  +135 888port  +135

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Iowa +135 ML over Vanderbilt

Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL

ReliaQuest Bowl

12:00 PM ET. This matchup is being framed almost entirely through the lens of Vanderbilt — and that’s exactly what creates the opportunity on the Iowa side. The Commodores narrowly missed the College Football Playoff, closed the season with three straight wins over Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee, and have been riding a wave of narrative momentum ever since Diego Pavia’s Heisman snub, and the media frenzy that followed. Clark Lea has been extended, the program is being celebrated as a rising SEC force, and the conversation around Vanderbilt is all about “finishing the job.” The market is buying into the sentiment.

Vanderbilt has also been one of the best covering teams in the country, cashing tickets at a remarkable 5-0-1 clip down the stretch, which only adds to the market’s enthusiasm. Yet, for all that praise, the Commodores are still being asked to lay less than a touchdown. That price range alone should give pause — it suggests that oddsmakers do not fully trust Vanderbilt in this role, despite the bestowed faith.

Iowa, meanwhile, is never going to captivate anyone emotionally. They don’t win with flash, they don’t overwhelm anyone stylistically, and they rarely dominate box scores. What they do is hang around. They play disciplined, physical football, they control tempo, and they force opponents to earn everything. All three of their losses — to Indiana, Oregon, and USC — came by a combined 12 points. This is a team that lives on the margins and thrives in tight, competitive games. Which means as a plus-money underdog here they are worth a stab because we know they will be in position to cash perhaps in the fourth quarter.

If Iowa were ready to fold the tent, we wouldn’t have seen the response they delivered to close the season, including wins over Michigan State and an emphatic victory at Nebraska. Kirk Ferentz has built a culture where bowl preparation matters, where details matter, and where motivation is never a question. The Hawkeyes don’t treat these games as exhibitions — they treat them as opportunities.

Contrast that with Vanderbilt being priced as if the emotional narrative will automatically carry over. The Commodores may very well show up — but the number says this is a knife-edge matchup, not a coronation. Iowa’s style, composure, and ability to drag opponents into uncomfortable games gives them every opportunity to flip this outright. At this price, the Hawkeyes cannot be passed up.

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