Pinnacle    -1.5 -110   BET365   -1.5 -110  Sportsinteraction  -1.5 -110 888port  -1.5 -110

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Minnesota -1.5 over New Mexico

Chase Field – Phoenix, AZ

Rate Bowl

4:30 PM ET. Everyone loves a feel-good story, and the New Mexico Lobos have certainly been one this season. A 9–3 record, six straight wins, and a dramatic Black Friday upset of San Diego State put them squarely on the national radar. They narrowly missed the Mountain West Championship by virtue of metrics-driven tiebreakers, covered four of their last five, and arrive at this bowl riding momentum. On the surface, it’s easy to see why the market would gravitate toward the Lobos. But bowl season has a way of flattening narratives.

The Lobos now step out of the Mountain West bubble and face a Minnesota Golden Gophers program that plays a very different brand of football. Minnesota’s season has been uneven — 7–5 straight up and just 4–7 against the spread — and that lack of consistency has turned bettors off. Blowout losses to Oregon, Iowa, and Ohio State sit alongside narrow wins over Michigan State and Rutgers, while a loss at Northwestern and a road defeat at Cal only add to the perception that this is a team difficult to trust. That perception is exactly why value exists here.

Minnesota’s résumé looks ugly in spots, but context matters. The Gophers spent the season battling a Big Ten schedule loaded with physical, line-of-scrimmage teams. They beat Wisconsin to close out the year, taking Paul Bunyan’s Axe, and finishing with a huge win of their own but none of that moves the needle because the Badgers are a shell of their former selves. However, this is also a football team that is well-coached and prides itself on how it finishes. This is a huge intangible here.

For New Mexico, this bowl can go two ways. They can play inspired football, chasing a tenth win and proving they belonged in the Mountain West title picture — or they can come out flat, still processing the disappointment of missing that championship opportunity by virtue of mathematics. That uncertainty matters against a program like Minnesota, which treats bowl games as business trips rather than celebrations.

This isn’t a popularity contest or about what side feels good to back. This is a matchup of styles, experience, and what goes on in the trenches. Minnesota’s size, depth, and physicality give them a clear edge in that scenario. But we get Row The Boat at a discount because of their body of work this season when held up to the fluffy tale of New Mexico’s emergence. This is a classic buy-low spot on a team the market has grown tired of, against an opponent whose story may be overly emphasized. Lay the small number. Minnesota gets it done.

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