Pinnacle  +6.5 -105   BET365   +6.5 -105  Sportsinteraction  +6.5 -105 888port  +6.5 -105

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Ohio +6.5 over UNLV

The Ford Center – Frisco, TX

Frisco Bowl

9:00 PM ET. Have the Ohio Bobcats really become chopped liver? Since falling out of the MAC title race, Ohio has faded from the market’s focus, while UNLV continues to be treated as a premium Group of Five program simply because of its win total and conference championship appearance. But when you peel back the layers, this is a matchup where perception and reality are badly misaligned.

UNLV has been living dangerously all season. Yes, the Rebels score — 35 points per game — but they also give nearly all of it back. Their defense allows close to 29 points per contest, and that vulnerability has shown up repeatedly. Boise State, an offense that has sputtered throughout the year, had no issue putting 38 on them. Earlier in the season, UNLV escaped several games by razor-thin margins, relying on variance and favorable breaks rather than control. This was done against FCS opposition and teams that play losing football, by the way.

Ohio doesn’t play that kind of football. The Bobcats are fundamentally sound, defensively disciplined, and far more balanced. They allow just 22 points per game and score 28 on average — a profile that travels well and keeps games tight. This is not a team that collapses late or gifts opponents short fields. The issue with UNLV is structural. They are an offense-first team being asked to cover points against an opponent that can slow the pace, win field position, and force long drives. That’s not a recipe for margin. And yet the number has moved in UNLV’s direction due to one-way market traffic, inflating the spread further. It is not conducive to be spotting points with a team of the Rebels’ profile and then doing so at a bloated rate to boot.

Ohio doesn’t need a perfect game. They just need to be who they are — disciplined, physical, and patient. That’s enough to keep this within a score, and potentially win the game outright. The Cats may be worth a money line sprinkle here but we’ll take the points and let the chips fall where they may.   

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