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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Southern Miss +110 ML over Western Kentucky

Caesar’s Superdome – New Orleans, LA

New Orleans Bowl

5:30 PM ET. Western Kentucky looks like the obvious side. The Hilltoppers are a recognizable brand, they’re 9–3 against the spread, and they looked good in competitive performances against Jacksonville State and LSU despite losing. Before that they went 6-1 over seven games. That’s exactly why they’re favored — and exactly why Southern Miss holds the value.

WKU’s late-season résumé looks strong on paper, but dig deeper and cracks appear. Inside their much-praised 6–1 stretch sits a blowout loss to FIU, plus narrow escapes against Delaware, Louisiana Tech, and Missouri State — wins by a combined nine points. Flip a bounce or two, and the Hilltoppers may not even be bowling. Their floor is far lower than the market wants to admit.

Southern Miss, meanwhile, is not the same program people remember fading years ago. The Charles Huff Experience has stabilized this team. They don’t beat themselves, they play competitive football, and they were 7–2 before a late dip knocked down their perception. Even in those losses, the Eagles were far from lifeless as they were competitive and/or competent in two of their last three losses to close out the regular season.

The market still treats Southern Miss like a program rebuilding from scratch. That’s outdated thinking. This team is stable, motivated, and capable — and now they’re being priced at plus money against a Hilltoppers squad whose ceiling may already be priced in. And even with that, the Toppers aren’t trusted to win by a field goal. That says it all. Bowl games reward bettors who back teams with hidden value. Western Kentucky brings reputation. Southern Miss brings opportunity. We’ll chase the latter.

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