Today's Free Picks for
Pinnacle -3 -110 BET365 -3 -110 Sportsinteraction -3 -110 888port -3 -110
Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change
TEXAS A&M -3 over Miami
Kyle Field – College Station, TX
College Football Playoff – First Round
12:00 PM ET. All it took was one loss for the market to abandon Texas A&M. That’s not hyperbole — that’s exactly what happened. The Aggies went into Thanksgiving weekend undefeated, ranked inside the top five, firmly in control of their own destiny. One rivalry loss in Austin, and suddenly the narrative flipped. Now the market wants to believe Texas A&M is vulnerable, while Miami has become the fashionable side. The Canes after all weren’t even in this spot until two weeks ago and now everyone wants to believe and jump aboard the Mario Cristobal gravy train. But let’s get back to the Aggies.
Yes, Texas A&M lost to Texas. But rivalry games live outside logic. Emotions run high and the Aggies we remind all were playing in Austin. The Aggies were in a position where they could only fall — not rise — and when they finally did, the market treated it as a referendum rather than a stumble. However, this game isn’t in Coral Gables, it's in College Station. Kyle Field hosting a playoff game is not a minor detail — it’s seismic. This will be one of the most intense settings in college football this season as Kyle Field is second to none in home environment. The 12th Man doesn’t need motivation when they play UTEP, hand them a historic playoff home game and they are going to blow the roof off. Texas A&M will also be playing not just to advance, but to validate itself on a national stage even though they are still ranked in the Top 10 and have just one loss on the season. Amazing.
Miami, meanwhile, enters with narrative. The Hurricanes are being framed as a team with something to prove, eager to show they belong. But that story glosses over a key issue: Miami has already shown cracks away from home this season. Look no further than their nightmare trip to SMU where they were crushed in Abilene. The Canes haven’t been tested in an environment remotely comparable to College Station, and this is not a forgiving place to make any mistakes. The idea that Texas A&M is suddenly lesser because it lost once ignores the bigger truth. In many ways, that loss may help them. The pressure of perfection is gone. They can play freer, looser, and with an edge. Had the Aggies remained undefeated, Miami would likely be catching far more than a field goal. Instead, recency bias has compressed the number while A&M sits in a great bounce-back spot. This line isn’t about who the market likes — it’s about who the oddsmakers trust. That’s the team in Maroon and White. Lay the points.
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Our Pick
Texas A&M -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)
