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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

BAYLOR -2.5 over Houston

McLane Stadium – Waco, TX

12:00 PM ET. This matchup presents one of the clearer market contradictions of the entire week. On the surface, Baylor looks like a team bettors want nothing to do with. The Bears are 5–6, needing this victory just to reach bowl eligibility, and their 2–9 record against the spread has burned its supporters nearly every time they’ve stepped onto the field. Yet despite that, Baylor is favored over an 8–3 Houston team that has been ranked multiple times this season and sits at a strong 7–4 ATS. Not only that — Houston is a perfect 5–0 on the road this year. And still, they’re the underdog. That’s not an accident.

Lines like this almost always reveal the deeper truth that numbers alone don’t show. Baylor “should not” be favored based on résumé, record, ATS performance, or public perception. And yet they are. That’s the market telling us that motivation, situational dynamics, and matchup quality heavily favor the Bears.

The other key point: Baylor has been so poor against the spread this year that they are automatically undervalued in the market. Oddsmakers are fully aware of the narrative around this team, yet they still hung Baylor as the favorite. That’s not a trap — it’s a hint. When the weaker record is laying points to the stronger one, the signal is unmistakable. This is a buy-low spot on the Bears, and the market is telling us to take it. Underlay.

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