Pinnacle   -1 -110    BET365     -1 -110    Sportsinteraction   -1 -110   888port   -1 -110  

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

FLORIDA -1 over Florida State

Ben Hill Griffin Stadium – Gainesville, FL

4:30 PM ET. From a surface-level glance, this line shouldn’t exist. Florida is 3–8, coming off a televised blowout loss to Tennessee, and has been inconsistent and frustrating all season. Florida State sits at 5–6, playing for bowl eligibility, and carries a stronger résumé. Yet the Gators opened laying points. That is the biggest—and most telling—data point in this matchup.

This rivalry has always carried weight, but for Florida, this game is everything. Their season ends Saturday. They’re heading into an offseason that will bring a new head coach, new staff, and a retooled vision. That makes this game their de facto bowl. It’s the final chance to salvage pride, send their seniors off properly, and leave one lasting positive mark on an otherwise brutal year.

And the motivational edge runs deeper than that. A Florida win removes Florida State from bowl contention altogether, a significant emotional payoff when the Seminoles were ranked in the top 10 earlier this season. The Gators can finish a bad year by making their rival’s year even worse — that is powerful fuel in a rivalry like this.

Let’s not forget, the Gators couldn’t knock off their other big rival: Georgia. A heartbreaker that saw the Dawgs slip away. So this is all that Florida has left. We can talk about “sticking with it” here, and that’s true, but if the Gators after a blowout loss against Tennessee are still favored this week, then we know we are buying at an even lower price. The fact that the efficient market hammered the number down further gets us to a point where all we need is Florida to win. Which incidentally, it can do. The Orange and Blue have knocked off Texas in the Swamp and wrangled with bigger SEC foes than what FSU has to offer. Lay the point and see you at the window.

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