Pinnacle   +13½ -110    BET365    +13½ -110  Sportsinteraction  +13½ -110 888port  +13½ -110

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

CALIFORNIA +13½ over SMU

California Memorial Stadium – Berkeley, CA

8:00 PM ET. California enters this game off an embarrassing performance in The Big Game, where they were routed by Stanford and forced to hand back the Stanford Axe. That stung more than the scoreboard indicated. The market isn’t too happy with them either as they were hammered as a short favorite against the fighting Christmas Trees last week. When a team gets publicly humbled in a rivalry spot like the Big C did, they often become an automatic fade the next week — which is precisely why Cal becomes interesting: this is an overcorrection.

Meanwhile, SMU has become a market darling. At 8–3 with Kevin Jennings healthy and rolling, the Ponies control their path to the ACC Championship and a potential College Football Playoff ticket. The narrative is clean, the incentives are obvious, and the market is gobbling it up. But going to Berkeley isn’t a walk-through assignment, and this spot has “danger” written all over it. Cal is furious, and nothing would salvage their season more than derailing a ranked opponent’s postseason dreams.

Take away the Stanford disaster and the heartbreak loss against Virginia Tech, and Cal would own the same record as SMU with their own path to Charlotte still alive. But all of that has gotten lost in the broth of let-downs that California has endured all season long. It's the same old Bad News Bears to the consensus. But this is where the Golden Bears can right the ship, at home, in Strawberry Canyon. Cal shows up angry, motivated, and with a pulse. That makes them a live dog with teeth and the upset potential is very real — but taking the points is already value in itself. Go Bears.   

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