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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

PENN STATE -8 over Nebraska

Beaver Stadium – State College, PA

7:00 PM ET. Nebraska strolls into this matchup as the classic public underdog. At 7–3, with a path to a ten-win season still technically alive, the Cornhuskers have become a trendy pick all week long. Matt Rhule has undeniably restored pride and direction to the program, and the national perception has followed. But perception isn’t pricing—and the number tells you everything. Penn State opened -9.5 and has been bet down because the market cannot reconcile a 4–6 team laying more than a touchdown to a 7–3 team. That disconnect is exactly where the value begins.

Penn State’s record is misleading, bordering on deceptive. The Nittany Lions have had one “non-competitive” performance all season—the Ohio State game. Every other loss carries context. Against Indiana, a miracle catch prevented them from pulling the upset. Against Iowa, they had the game in their grasp but lost by one. Against Northwestern, they slipped by narrow margins. Against UCLA, they were ambushed in a classic letdown spot following the emotional drain of the Oregon loss—another game PSU believes slipped through its fingers in double overtime. Strip away the noise, and you’re staring at one of the strongest 4–6 teams in recent memory, a team whose season is built on near-misses rather than complete failures.

Now they return home for the final time this season. Senior Day. A team desperate to salvage what’s left and keep its bowl hopes alive. Emotional edges matter in college football, and Penn State has every one of them here. Nebraska, meanwhile, has overperformed but has not been dominant. Their offense has been inconsistent and prone to stalling against physical defensive fronts—the very type Penn State brings. Call it what you wish but we’ll call it a buzzsaw spot. Penn State is undervalued because their record is uglier than their performance level, and Nebraska is inflated because their record and name brand is doing the heavy lifting. What appears to be a generous helping of points in fact is an underlay on the hosts. Lay the points, PSU going away.   

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