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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

TEXAS -3 over Vanderbilt

Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, TX

12:00 PM ET. Vandymania continues. Last week, we faded the Commodores in what was a spot of national attention against a ranked Missouri team. And despite let-down potential, Vanderbilt, of course, won yet again. And now the conversation surrounding the Commodores is whether or not they could make the College Football Playoff — which, for a program of its historically maligned stature, seems incredible. The ‘Dores come in 7-1, and they’ve also been 6-2 against the number on the year. Thus, we are mid-swing through another episode of Commodore Carnival.

Against the Tigers, the ‘Dores won 17-10, but there is context to this. Missouri lost its starting quarterback, Beau Pribula, midway through the game, and that fact has been glossed over. Also not discussed: a series of Missouri miscues and a missed field goal that could have changed the entire complexion of the contest. Vanderbilt simply capitalized on Missouri’s misfortunes and managed to win 17-10. The box score paints a top-10 team ready to make a deep run after another ranked scalp — but that hyperbole masks what is hidden.

Enter Texas, the former #1 team in the polls and one of the most underwhelming sides of the college football season, though we remind everyone the Longhorns are still 6-2 and ranked. However, they’re just 2-6 against the spread, and they’ve been living dangerously week after week — needing overtime twice to escape Kentucky and Mississippi State, teams Texas were expected to dominate in the pre-season. Add in the 29-21 loss at Florida, and the Longhorns don’t look like a team the market loves laying points with, especially against a “team of destiny” like Vanderbilt appears to be.

Yet — despite all that — Texas is still the favorite, even with the Arch Manning uncertainties. We are paying attention to the signal, not the sentiment. The market is daring bettors to take Vanderbilt again, to ride the narrative one more week. The line says otherwise. In fact, if this line were priced in the summer, some suggest that the Horns would be a 21-point favorite. That alone makes this a value play with Texas; but when we factor in all of the fanfare and commotion, we know that the Longhorns are that much more equitable in this spot accordingly. Lay it.

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