Pinnacle    +18½ -110     BET365  +18½ -110   Sportsinteraction  +18½ -110   888port  +18½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Penn State +18½ over OHIO STATE

Ohio Stadium – Columbus, OH

3:30 PM ET. In the summer, this was one of the most highly-touted matchups on the calendar — analysts talking nonstop about a potential top-five showdown. On paper, that’s what this was supposed to be. Instead, we get Ohio State looking every bit the team to beat in the country, against the biggest disappointment of the season, Penn State, sitting at 3-4.

The ATS profiles tell the story the market wants to believe. Ohio State is a perfect 6-0-1 against the spread. Penn State forced its first cover of the season two weeks ago against Iowa — in a game they still lost in bizarre fashion by one point. The Buckeyes have dominated the series, with Penn State managing just one win against them in the last decade. Throw in Penn State’s turmoil, with James Franklin dismissed and the program in flux, and the public sees this as a coronation for Ohio State rather than a contest. But this is exactly where we want Penn State.

If Penn State had lived up to billing — if there wasn’t chaos and commotion swirling — this number is nowhere near three touchdowns. Penn State would realistically be a single-digit dog. Instead, we get a mountain of points because the market is results-oriented and reacts to headlines, not nuance. The roster, the talent, the five-star bodies that drew summer hype? Still there, still taking the field in Columbus sans Drew Aller and James Franklin. But that still means something here.

However, the conversation is no longer about who wins — it's whether Ohio State covers. And that’s precisely where value hides. Penn State can absolutely scare Ohio State here. If they somehow pulled the upset, it would be treated as seismic — yet had Penn State simply performed to expectation this season, that hypothetical wouldn't sound outlandish at all. Narrative and hyperbole drive market sentiment. Value lives where perception overreaches reality. That is this game. Grab the points.

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