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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

CALIFORNIA +190 ML over Virginia

California Memorial Stadium – Berkeley, CA

3:45 PM ET. We could start with the obvious — the ranked Cavaliers laying a small tag to unranked California on the road — but there's so much more to it than that. California was last seen on national broadcast last Friday losing to Virginia Tech, a team that is regarded as one of the weaker sides in the ACC. The Bears lost in overtime to the Hokies as a six-point underdog, only to lose by eight because Virginia Tech converted a two-pointer and Cal didn’t score. That’s one of the worst beats you can endure — a lot of things have to go against you for that to happen. Still it makes it hard to come back and swing on the Bears here.

Before that? Cal narrowly escaped North Carolina — who has been a grand disappointment after hiring Bill Belichick — then at home got demolished by Duke 45-21 as only a three-point dog. Add in the dramatic comeback at lowly Boston College (28-24) and the 34-0 drubbing they took from San Diego State, and the question becomes: Why is Cal taking back such a short price here against a “hot” and ranked Virginia team?

Now let’s look at the Hoos deeper. The Cavaliers have won six in a row and now suddenly have an inside track to Charlotte and are even being discussed as a potential playoff team. And as we know all too well — when one team’s stock is skyrocketing and the other’s is plummeting, value forms in the shadows. That is exactly what we have here.

Let’s examine Virginia’s résumé. Yes, they’ve won seven of their last eight. But how did they get there?

- Beat Coastal Carolina and William & Mary (Big Deal)

- Beat Florida State in double OT in a look-ahead spot for the Noles

- Clobbered Stanford (who doesn’t count for much)

- Lost to a four-loss NC State

- Won in OT at Louisville despite the Cards controlling the game.

- Narrowly escaped Washington State

- Beat UNC by one point in OT by way of a failed two-point conversion.

This team could easily have four more losses and won three games in overtime. Essentially, UVA flipped a coin three times and got Heads every single occasion. That’s hard to do. And in the big picture, their record might look worse than Cal’s had the coin flips gone differently.

The short tag on the road tells you everything — Virginia’s luck may be running out, and Cal, now completely off the radar after last week’s heartbreak, is primed to pounce. Perfect chaos spot. We are taking the Bears outright. Let’s go.

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