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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

ARKANSAS -4½ over Mississippi State

Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium – Fayetteville, AR

4:00 PM ET. Mississippi State has been one of the best covering teams in the country at 7-1 against the number. They’re also 4-4 straight up. Arkansas, meanwhile, is just 3-5 ATS and 2-6 on the year. And yet the Razorbacks are laying -4.5 to the Bulldogs. That’s what demands the most attention before we dig deeper. But let’s run it back while we are at it.

Last week, Mississippi State blew a three-possession fourth-quarter lead and lost to Texas in overtime — the kind of heart-breaking loss that leaves residue. The week before that, Mississippi State had Florida beat and lost by two. The week before that, they got clobbered by Texas A&M — but that gets forgiven because the Aggies look like the class of the SEC. And before that, Mississippi State lost another heartbreaker to Tennessee, 41-34.

This team has been living on emotional edges for a month. But because they’ve been covering, the market whitewashes the collapse risk. Meanwhile, Arkansas fired Sam Pittman after Notre Dame annihilated them 56-13 at the end of September. Since then, the Hogs haven’t won a game — six straight losses in total since a 2-0 start. Their stock is buried. But context is key, remember. The Razorbacks:

- Lost by one at now-ranked Memphis — a game they should’ve won

- Took Ole Miss (a Top-10 team) to the wire

- Lost by three at Tennessee, a playoff hopeful

- Lost by three hosting Texas A&M, arguably the best team in the SEC right now

This is a team that — with slightly different bounces — could easily be 6-2 instead of 2-6, and with three ranked scalps to its name. Under that alternative timeline, Arkansas is ranked right now. If they were, they’d be an even bigger favorite. Instead, results, not ingredients, drive perception.

Mississippi State looks like the value play because they’ve been a broken ATM in the best way — printing tickets weekly. Arkansas looks radioactive. But the number says it all. If this were truly the Bulldogs’ spot, they would not be catching this many against a 2-6 side. This is the buy-low, sell-high moment. Lay the points with the Hogs.

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