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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

COLORADO +160 ML over Arizona

Folsom Field – Boulder, CO

7:00 PM ET. Do you remember when Prime-Mania swept across college football two years ago? Simpler, sweeter times where you could kick your feet up and watch Colorado, as a 20-point underdog, beat a ranked TCU team — and bedlam followed? We get nostalgic thinking about it. Or how about last year when Colorado was making a playoff push with Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders still in Buffalo uniforms, and the market rushed every week to back the Buffs? Those seem like distant memories now; framed pictures of yesteryear one clutches close to their heart on a fall day.

Times have changed. Deion Sanders and company have gone from phenomenon to punchline in the eyes of the public, and that presents us the opportunity we have in the present. Last week, the Buffs were obliterated in Salt Lake City. It wasn’t much of a game — more like a public execution — as Utah dismantled Colorado 53-7. And because of that, everyone has jumped ship. But the week before? Colorado beat Iowa State 24-17 — an Iowa State team that opened the year as a Big 12 dark horse and carried ranking hype.

The Buffs sit 3-5. Not good — literally. But figuratively? Let's go deeper. Arizona sits at 4-3 and looks appealing on the surface. They gave ranked Houston all it could handle, lost by six to current top-10 BYU, and beat Kansas State. But besides that? Wins over Hawaii, Weber State, and Oklahoma State without Gundy. They also got bludgeoned by Iowa State 39-14. Nothing here says they should be trusted laying a price on the road.

However, the market sees Colorado as a shell of its former hype machine self, so Arizona becomes the easy “fade Prime” play. That’s exactly why we fade that thinking. Colorado lost by three to BYU and they had Georgia Tech on the ropes in the season opener. Flip those two results and Colorado sits 5-3 with two top-10 wins, and they’re favored in this spot – no question.

Connotation matters more than denotation. In other words, the context of circumstances rather than the actual optics. To the naked eye, Colorado is 3-5. In context, they could very easily be 5-3. But results — not ingredients — drive market sentiment. And that 53-point drubbing last week gives us maybe the first real value opportunity of Coach Prime’s tenure. We dare say the wrong side is favored. Buffs outright.

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