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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

NEBRASKA +165 ML over USC

Memorial Stadium – Lincoln, NE

7:30 PM ET. Anytime we see a ranked side laying a short number to an unranked side, it warrants us to take a closer look. In this case, we have #23 USC laying an underdog-conducive number on the road to Nebraska — a team that’s unranked, yes, but still 6-2. Against the spread, however, Nebraska is just 2-5-1, which is less than appealing, and that fuels the perception here. Nebraska has created plenty of memories of unravelling at home in games it should have won — and we saw that again this season when the Huskers hosted Michigan on September 20th and lost by a field goal. Two weeks ago, they were blown out at Minnesota 24-6 in a game that they were favored to win.

Looking deeper at Nebraska’s wins — seven-point win over Northwestern, three-point win at Maryland, nine-point win vs Michigan State, three-point neutral-site escape vs Cincinnati, plus wins over Akron and Houston Christian — it doesn’t exactly scream “threatening 6-2.” That’s the trap.

Because what has USC actually done to warrant respect in this market? Let’s examine. They beat Missouri State 73-13, Georgia Southern 59-20, Purdue 33-17 — essentially, nobodies. They beat Michigan State by 14, all well and good. But on the road at Illinois, they lost on a walk-off field goal — a game USC felt it should have won but found a way to lose. Yes, they hammered Michigan in Los Angeles, 31-13. But then they went to Notre Dame — a ranked opponent of substance — and lost by 10, and frankly it could have been worse.

Any time this USC team has faced a quality opponent on the road, it has suffered a let-down. That’s the key. And Nebraska? Not the most attractive 6-2 team to the naked eye, but still dangerous and still a quality program. Cincinnati might win the Big 12 and Nebraska beat them. Nebraska lost by a field goal to Michigan — a game the Huskers felt they should have won. However, Matt Rhule remains winless against ranked foes and that also is shaping the market psyche.

Everything about psychology and perception says USC. Everything about the setup and the number says Nebraska is live. We lean on the latter, not the former. Huskers straight up.

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