Pinnacle  +150  BET365   +150  Sportsinteraction  +150  888port  +150

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +150 ML over Jacksonville State

Floyd Stadium – Murfreesboro, TN

7:30 PM ET. Let’s start with the number — the Blue Raiders taking back less than a touchdown. That says a lot for a team that is 1–6 on the year and has dropped their last four. Jacksonville State, meanwhile, has won their last two. But the question remains: are they the road chalk here simply because their stock isn’t in the doldrums like MTSU’s? The answer is likely yes.

There’s also a sample of a recent common opponent. Jacksonville State beat Delaware its last time out two weeks ago by a touchdown despite being a three-point home dog. The Raiders? They were a nine-point pup last week at the Fightin’ Blue Hens and lost by a field goal. That comparison alone helps explain the market’s current lean and valuation.

However, none of that actually matters once these two teams get on the field. The market is results-oriented, but the proof of the pudding is in the line. If Jacksonville State were truly trusted in this spot, they’d be laying a converted touchdown or more. They aren’t. And that tells you all you need to know.

The Gamecocks are in a role they haven’t proven they can handle — laying points on the road against a desperate opponent. In the one time that J-State did that earlier this month against Sam Houston State, the Gamecocks were nearly upset outright. And the Bearkats incidentally remain winless on the season. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee comes in free-rolling, with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Just like Sam Houston State.

MTSU is also the type of team that fits perfectly into this kind of setup: undervalued, overlooked, and priced at a live number that suggests they’re far more dangerous than the record implies. We’ve seen this scenario before — the struggling home dog no one wants a part of, taking back a price that quietly screams they are live. We’ll trust it. Blue Raiders outright.

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