Pinnacle   +210   BET365   +210  Sportsinteraction  +210  888port  +210

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

TEXAS STATE +210 ML over James Madison  

Bobcat Stadium – San Marcos, TX

8:00 PM ET. JMU comes into this game with a lot of curb appeal. The Dukes are sitting just outside the Top 25, 6-1 with a modest loss to #16 Louisville, and the Sun Belt waiting for their taking. James Madison has also been a cash cow against the number, 5-2 on the year.

You remember Texas State, don’t you? The team that drained bankrolls due to crazy bad breaks weeks on end. We can list three episodes in succession — Arkansas State (an outright upset as a 13.5-point choice), Troy (where the Cats blew a huge fourth quarter lead and lost in overtime), and two weeks ago Marshall, where funnily enough, T-State blew yet another fourth quarter lead when they were last in action.

That brings us to now. Who would bet State here? The answer is no one. But in addition to "sticking with it" as we champion, we also have to point out that the Bobcats are taking back an underdog-friendly number which warrants attention. JMU is riding the hot hand while the Bobcats look like the perfect fade. The number says they are live.

A breaking down of X’s and O’s isn’t required here. No stats or metrics substantiate the position. We’ll finish with this. What would the Cats be priced if they had beaten Arkansas State like they were supposed to; they whacked Troy because they never let up; and they beat Marshall on the road two weeks ago because they held on? You are talking about a 6-1 Texas State team that is not snake-bitten but instead a widely-regarded threat. This is the same team by the way, that is three plays away from this characterization.

Moreover, this game suddenly has CFP implications instead of being a road bump for the Dukes to run over. Instead, the Cats are talked about and not laughed at in this alternate universe. But because the market plays results instead of ingredients, we get a live dog that could easily be favored here if they weren’t mauled by the variance bug at near two-to-one money. That is value. Forget the points. T-State outright.

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